Analytical paper Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 2250 words

Analytical paper - Essay Example ocratic reshaping is proving to be a contradictory, uncertain, and conflict-ridden process, one that has provoked sharp debates both within Bolivia and among observers of Bolivia abroad† (Wolff 3). The problems inside and outside of Bolivia with respect to democratic reforms are certainly not easily definable. Most would also agree a move towards socialism by the current Evo Morales regime is troubling for democratic proponents. Though most would agree that democratic change in Bolivia could be sincerely philanthropic venture by democratic proponents, economic vitalization of Bolivia is usually the anticipated motivation and priority assisting any efforts for ‘changing’ governments, â€Å"†¦creating order is a central task for establishing the foundations of long term economic growth† (North, 1999). It is reasonable then to consider the perceived ‘value’ of Bolivia post-change in light of simple economic potential. The future does not look bright for Bolivian democracy with change as a constant drumbeat from Bolivia’s past. The geography of Bolivia suggests that independence, whether democratic or socialist, is always going to be a matter of dependence upon others. Bolivia is one of two ‘land-locked’ countries in the Western Hemisphere (Paraguay the other) and relies on neighboring countries for exporting its mineral resources (Bolivia’s primary export) throughout the world. This dependence upon neighbors, specifically Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Peru and Paraguay, is more significant than some may think. Bolivia once had access to the sea but lost this territory to Chile in the War of the Pacific in the late 1800’s. Bolivia has suffered poverty and government instability ever since the War of the Pacific. Bolivia’s main obstacle to ‘independence’ is Bolivia’s land-locked juxtaposition. The easiest and cheapest route for one of Bolivia’s chief exports, Bolivian crude oil, is directly through Brazil via a pipeline. Brazil also

America History Essay Essay Example for Free

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Computerized Maintenance Management Systems :: essays papers

Computerized Maintenance Management Systems INTRODUCTION Facilities departments are under tremendous pressure to provide more information faster, and at a lower cost to the company. At the same time many companies have reduce staff to the bare minimum. Maintenance professional are presented with more difficult challenges today than at any previous point. The biggest obstacle of all confronting maintenance professionals is being forced to do more with fewer resources. Maintenance departments must deliver superior service, comply with regulatory requirements and provided detail financial accountably all within the confines of limited and/or reduce budgets. In order to meet these challenges, maintenance professionals are arming themselves with economical computerized maintenance management systems (CMMS). In recent years flexible, dependable and economical computerized maintenance management systems have become available to help fight the never-ending struggle to operate and maintain the built environment. But what are computerized maintenance management systems? They are management information systems that utilize the technologies of computers, telecommunications, etc. to executed the maintenance management processes and provide management with information for decisions making process. Work Identification Work Planning Work Scheduling Analysis History Recording Work Execution Like any other computerize information system it is made up of the following: a. hardware b. software c. data bases d. peripherals equipments e. train staff members We need to acknowledge at the outset that CMMS are not for every organization and that current research shows that as much as fifty percent of all CMMS start up have failed to pay back a meaningful return on investment after two years of operations. That is to say in many cases the heavy investment in CMMS information technologies have failed to live up to the much publicized benefits of automation and have delivered some disappointed results. So we do not want to give the impression that CMMS in themselves will cure all the ills of the profession and to advice against walking into the same technology trap that are endemic to the business community at large. In a rush to automate every job function that affects organizational efficiency and bottom line profits, many managers are overlooking important caveats inherent in all information technology implementations. This highlights the point that an organization needs to know how to find the right CMMS and how to implement and main tain the system. The decreasing costs of computer hardware, and the emerging power of microcomputers and software technologies, have disguised the question of feasibility.

Biometric Payment Essay -- essays research papers

Abstract Paying with your fingerprint coming to a store near you. Buying groceries with a touch of a finger is already being marketed and used in many stores. Finger scanning will soon be ubiquitous, offering speed and convenience to consumers. It will help protect and prevent identity theft. Kids growing up now cannot imagine you needing a cord to use a telephone. Soon they will be saying, â€Å"You mean you had to carry around a piece of plastic or a piece of paper to buy something?† Right now about 500 stores are offering biometric payment and are projected to triple in 2006. The Jetson Age Identity theft has become a major concern for consumers these days and companies are trying to figure out a way to help their customers protect themselves against it. For some time, biometric authentication seemed to be a technology in search of a quality application. Now these two problems are coming together. The idea of linking personal characteristics to a database of settlement sources is beginning to be adopted in grocery stores and retail outlets across the country. What is biometrics? Biometrics refers to the use of an automatic system to verify personal identity through physiological and behavioral characteristics. Biometric payment technology allows the consumer to pay with a touch of a finger on a fingerprint scanner. The fingerprint template is usually linked to a router and transmission media necessary to clear the transaction through an automated clearinghouse. Many of the biometric payment transaction providers are focusing on grocery, home improvement and convenience stores, others have show interest in fast food, car washes and vending operations. Biometric payment providers require compl... ...ier. Biometric payment will reduce fraud and identity theft, speedup checkout and most importantly lower transaction processing fees retailers, improving their bottom line. A 20% reduction in processing costs over the next several years can show a 4% increase in earnings per share. This is making the big-box discounters like Wal-Mart and Costco look at this technology closer. References Boyle, Matthew. (2006). Let your fingers do the paying. Retrieved September 4, 2006, from www.furtune.com. McCarthy, Ellen. (2005) Cash, Charge or Fingerprint. Retrieved September 4, 2006, from www.washingtonpost.com. Wade, Will (2003) Fingerprint Payment Systems Going Live at U.S. Retailers. Retrieved September 4, 2006, from www.americanbanker.com. Wong, Grace (2005) Cash or plastic? How about fingerprint?. Retrieved September 4, 2006, from www.cnnmoney.com.

Critically Analysis Of Professional Development Education Essay

Committed to a certain criterions of behavior is called the professionalism. This declaration is force us more productive as a whole. This professional cognition that people see you in your manus as a messenger of their Company, section, concern, community, etc. It is Professional ‘s duty to act in the ways that brings recognition to themselves and more significantly to the organisation. If we think about the features of communicating. Communication is important in my definition of professionalism because, communicating is frequently the solution of all jobs. In order to be deafening in concern everyone has to be satisfied with their occupation and atmosphere. Communication gives workers the chance to province their sentiments, concerns, or encouragement. It helps people work more expeditiously as section, therefore doing concerns blossom. Many qualities make up a individual ‘s character. Equally good as Honesty is really of import in portraying good character because it helps a individual to derive the trust of others. In a good working environment people have to number on each other for many things, and being an honest individual makes it a batch easier. Once trust is lost, it is difficult to derive back. Assurance is a key to being a professional. A confident individual who has the ability to manage every thing is non afraid to take a hazard and at the terminal of the twenty-four hours do a batch of money. Some hazards need to be taken particularly when the wages outweighs the hazard. Confident people climb the societal ladder and adapt to what needs to be done in different countries. Assurance is frequently an property found in leaders and every company needs a leader. Respectfulness is something that should be nowadayss everyplace. Peoples should acknowledge their higher-ups and handle them with the extreme respectful manners. Respect should be given to your seniors, because you would anticipate the same has to be done from your juniors. Performance wise I am bit weak of as Cyril o houle ‘s demands as he is reference that in his public presentation features: cognition and accomplishment base pattern for the personal development which can besides depict in pattern of your profession: a adult male should be command of theoretical cognition which is come be experience ; to work out the jobs easy ; so usage of practical cognition which I learnt in my yesteryear by sing the easy and difficult undertakings in my past life or by the professional surveies ; in the terminal he said self enhancement harmonizing to the professional by take parting the cognition base activities. For case, reading books, listserv treatment groups, newspapers etc. Continue professional instruction besides heighten the sense of professional association and individuality. Basically we are following the demands: in other words every one is in race of demands, holding evolved over 10s of 1000s of old ages. So I would wish to demo the maslow ‘s hierarchy of demands motive theoretical account which is still valid in all over the universe since 1940's-50 ‘s. This theoretical account explains how these demands motivate us all. It shows us how we must hold to fulfill each demand in bend, get downing with the first, which deals with the most obvious demands for endurance itself. If lower order demands of physical and emotional wellbeing are satisfied so we need to worry about with the higher order demands of influence and personal development.3. Mention from old undertakingHarmonizing to my 1st undertaking of my assignment I had explained my formal professional development in the signifier of my analyzing in Bachelorette grade in calculating I did that in twelvemonth 2005, every bit good as in informal developments of my life. It helps me a batch in my life, to alter my life manner and nearing manner every bit good as how to manage the jobs more expeditiously and efficaciously. But I have n't had any practical cognition in IT field but still I am seeking to acquire the higher degree of my professional abilities in information engineering wh ich I will able to acquire by utilizing these techniques are below. Which I have found them in my Professional development category, these are really first-class for a professional ‘s if they will use on his practical life.Reflected surveies:What is contemplation or reflected surveies?As we know contemplation is an every twenty-four hours procedure as we interact with series of job which we face every twenty-four hours in our life. By snaping these inquiries: What went good? What did n't? Why? How do I experience about it? It merely happens as interior feelings, ideas and emotions about something by and large. To undertake the jobs we think possibly we can take to make something otherwise, or non, as a consequence of reflecting, but contemplation is basically a sort of loose processing of ideas and feelings about an event. Any event or experience at all. Contemplation can be a more structured manner of processing in order to cover with jobs. This type of contemplation may take topographic point when we have had clip to be stand back from something, or speak it through, as in: as on one contemplation, I think you might be right ‘ , or on the 2nd ideas, I realised he was more disquieted than me. ‘ If we deliberately reflect as portion of the function, there would be a unsmooth patterned advance of ‘How did it travel? What went good? Why? What did n't? Why? What next? ‘ Examples might be of a cricket manager reflecting after a lucifer, a instructor reflecting on a lesson, or merely a parent believing about how best to cover with a adolescent. In this sort of contemplation, the purpose is to look profoundly at what happened, kind out what is truly traveling on and research in deepness, in order to better, or alteration something for following clip.3.2 Key Necessities of a contemplation1. Understanding of an event: We do n't ever larn from experiences. Contemplation is where we critically analyse our experiences. 2. Standing back technique: It could be hard while standing back but it is good technique with that you will gain or could acquire the hitter position of a state of affairs. 3. Repeat: Contemplation involves making one thing once more and once more to make a broader position of the incident to carry through accurately. Or it could assist you to look into the mistakes to change them in right manners. 4. Endeavoring after truth: we acknowledge the truth of any state of affairs by endeavoring or delving deeper in the incident. 5. Reviewing activities: Contemplation can convey greater lucidity, if you see the same incident in same for your chance for case, seeing events reflected in a mirror. This can assist at any portion of planning, reexamining activities. 6. Learning ability: Contemplation is about larning and life long learning and understanding in deepness of any thing. This includes deriving valuables knowledge that can non be merely ‘taught ‘ . 7. Decisions: Contemplation is as constructing blocks of any incident for pulling decisions in order develop an attack, scheme or motion. Contemplation is a type of believing associated with deep idea, aimed to accomplishing better understanding. It contains a mixture of some necessities:3.3 Reflecting on your acquisition:It can assist you take an nonsubjective position of your advancement and see what is traveling good and what needs to be emend or needs to alter for the following clip it is about future planning. 3.4 Key inquiries to believe about as practising contemplation acquisition: 1. How did it travel? How do I experience about it? 2. What went good, or OK? Why? 3. What was non so good? Why? 4. How could this have been done otherwise? 5. What should I alter or work on for following clip? What would be the first measure?3.5 Advantages of contemplation acquisition:You will experience that instantly so you would n't travel in front you will wait until every thing is all right, it helps you see what went good and give you spotlight on the positive side of an action every bit good as the more negative side of the action or event. Helps you to develop a problem-solving attack, instead than stand back believing about troubles. For case, it is really helpful to reflect when you receive feedback of on your assignment, as a manner of utilizing the feedback to alter or develop your attack.3. DecisionManner I have n't learnt decently? What were the hindered in my life?Writing merely for me means I can compose freely, ideas and feelings are expressed in a relaxed and informal manner. I can do leaps in my thought and research connexions between ideas this composing a originative procedure that encourages me to develop new thoug hts. Writing on a regular basis in a diary helps me to develop and experiment with my ain authorship manner. Puting thoughts into words is a important academic authorship accomplishment. It takes pattern to develop a manner you feel comfy with, and a diary is a good topographic point to take some hazards and seek out different ‘voices ‘ . You do n't hold to compose a batch at one time, but it does assist to compose small and frequently, if possible every twenty-four hours. It helps your assurance to look back over a diary and see advancement, how you have dealt with troubles, and how your thoughts have moved on. Develop your composing manner ; composing on a regular basis in aid you develop and experiment with your ain authorship manner. Puting thoughts into words is a critical academic authorship accomplishment. It takes pattern to develop a manner you feel comfy with, and a general is a good topographic point to take some hazards and seek out different ways. You do n't hold to compose a batch at one time, but it does assist to compose small and frequently, sooner every twenty-four hours. It helps your assurance to look back over authorship and see advancement, how you have dealt with troubles, and how your thoughts have moved on. It is really utile to hold a note of issues and questions you might desire to raise with a coach or other pupils. A general authorship is an of import record for look intoing back, and can assist you plan following stairss.

Quotes From PW Botha, Prime Minister of South Africa

Quotes From PW Botha, Prime Minister of South Africa I never have the nagging doubt of wondering whether perhaps I am wrong. President P. W. Botha, who served as the Prime Minister of South Africa from 1978 to 1984 and executive State President from 1984 to 1989, gave many memorable remarks about leading South Africa under the policies of apartheid that kept races segregated. On Apartheid I am one of those who believe that there is no permanent home for even a section of the Bantu in the white area of South Africa, and the destiny of South Africa depends on this essential point. If the principle of permanent residence for the black man in the area of the white is accepted, then it is the beginning of the end of civilization as we know it in this country. The people who are opposing the policy of apartheid have not the courage of their convictions. They do not marry non-Europeans. Because you could not translate the word apartheid into the more universal language of English, the wrong connotation was given to it. I am sick and tired of the hollow parrot-cry of apartheid! Ive said many times that the word apartheid means good neighborliness. On Race Relations You could not claim for yourself that which you were not prepared to grant others. The security and happiness of all minority groups in South Africa depends on the Afrikaner. Most blacks are happy, except those who have had other ideas pushed into their ears. If the principle of permanent residence for the black man in the area of the white is accepted, then it is the beginning of the end of civilization as we know it in this country. I am not against the provision of the necessary medical assistance to colored and natives, because unless they receive that medical aid, they become a source of danger to the European community. The white people who came here lived at a very much higher standard than the indigenous peoples and with a very rich tradition, which they brought with them from Europe. Our history is responsible for the differences in the South African way of life. Botha Quotes On Leading South Africa The free world wants to feed South Africa to the Red Crocodile [communism] to appease its hunger. The idea of an Afrikaner people as a cultural entity and religious group with a special language will be retained in South Africa as long as civilization stands. Half a century ago in this court, I was sworn in as the member of Parliament for George. And here I am today...I am not better than General De Wet. I am not better than President Steyn. Like them, I stand firm in my principles. I can do no different. So help me God. Adapt or die. I believe we are today crossing the Rubicon, Mr. Chairman. In South  Africa, there can be no turning back. I have a manifesto for the future of our country and we must engage in positive action in the months and years that lie ahead.From his National Party Congress Speech, 15 August 1985. Sources Crwys-Williams, Jennifer. Penguin Dictionary of South African Quotations. Paperback, Penguin Global, August 12, 2009. Krog, Antjie. Country of My Skull. Hardcover, Crown, First Edition edition, February 22, 1999. Lennox-Short, Alan. A treasury of quotations. AD. Donker, 1991. McGreal, Chris. Brothers in arms - Israels secret pact with Pretoria. The Guardian, February 7, 2006. PW Botha. South Africa Travel Online, 2017. Van der Vat, Dan. PW Botha. The Guardian, November 2006.

Strategic Analysis (PESTEL, SWOT and Five Forces) of Ford Automobile The WritePass Journal

Strategic Analysis (PESTEL, SWOT and Five Forces) of Ford Automobile Introduction Strategic Analysis (PESTEL, SWOT and Five Forces) of Ford Automobile IntroductionWhat is global marketing Industry DefinitionIntroduction to Automobile Industry: Introduction to FordPEST Analysis:Ford pest Analysis:Political Factors:Investor’s environmentEconomical Factors:Growth aptitude of functional market:Effective Market Amount: Economic Advancement:Oil Charges Variations:Social Factors: Geographical Advancements Customer Mental OutlookTravel Tendency Technological Factors Provide chain association Operations Aptitude Technological Advancements in dispersion Product Transpiration Swot Analysis of Ford Automobile Company Strengths of Ford:Brand AppearenceOnline Marketing efficiency More customers appraisal Actions and allocation ability Connections with leading organizations Employee are affirm Weakness of Ford:Sales Deterioration Extremely large unfunded allowance and other accountabilities Low abundance Weakening actions in North America Opportunities of FordCreation of the fuel conducive cars  Development of Hybrid vehicles Circumstanc es in India and China marketsThreats to ford:Amount increase in unprocessed materialAccelerated development of competitors Smaller Capital applying Competitor Analysis  Strategies of ford  OBJECTIVEConclusion  RecommendationsReferecnes:Related Introduction What is global marketing Global Marketing is the function of critical marketing assume to all feature of the businesss brand or applicability. If your businesss brand or applicability needs to be approach settled, then our imperative marketing dispensations are important to highlighting, composing and then eliminating an prosecutable design. Industry Definition Automobile can be characterize as the transport which spring on two, three, four or more tyres, the ambition may be to drive on the roads by individuals or to move the goods from one place to another place. Introduction to Automobile Industry: First vehicle is a three wheeler which was executed by Nicolas J. Cugnot. At first executed vehicle is accomplished by steam engine and advanced it was accomplished by fuels which are presently accessible in the merchandise. Currently less vehicles are rolling place on the extendable activities like Solar and Bio Fuels. Some vehicles are accomplished to work on Electricity. From the previous archives we can analyze that America is ruling in automobile business. Recently nations like India and Brazil are introducing their progress rate in the worldwide markets of vehicles business. Introduction to Ford Ford automobile firm is a worlwide ruler in automobile industry, which is constituted by Henry Ford. It is complying its trade in 7 continents and 90 plants are lanced globally. Ford recruited 201,000 workers in their organization.Ford producing Cars Commercial transports. Ford accomplishing its trade in fallowing continents North America Europe Asia Pacific Latin America Middle East Africa Caribbean Ford is escorting with some of the associations to manufacture exceptional automobiles. Ford is escorting with organizations like, BP, Microsoft, Sony, Roush, Adventure island Water country USA. PEST Analysis: Basically Pest analysis act as four important factors known as Political, Economical, Social and Technical factors of an industry. Political factors are about taxation, recruitment laws, domestic trade administrations and antagonist trade administrations. Economical Factors elaborate about economic advancement by corporation, tactics concerning crisis, distension and access of exchange rates Social Factors tell us   about assets dispersion, cost, living alteration, health welfare, mental outlook to work and living circumstances. Technical Factors give a reason for Technological ability, technological relegation, amount of consuming in experiments, Energy operate expense and advanced creations. Ford pest Analysis: Political Factors: Market prices, oil charges and costless business continues which access the customer to devote on the automobile. derived dominion adjustment and technological assistance among nations helping the ford in boosting the endowment and constucting the modern standards which can encounter with the present outline. Commencement of new organization constitution influence the ford to advance its standing orders which are essential for assembling a valueable transport. Insisted accumulation (Labour unions) who plays an inportant role in the generation of an automobile in a ford assembling association. The labour unions should practice corresponding to the rules and regulations elevated by the business acts. Investor’s environment In most of the organizations financier had a administrative role to play in the progress and advancement of the aggregation. Economical Factors: Growth aptitude of functional market: The growth aptitude of functional market will conclude the attaining potential of the customer. That is the important factor that ford is performing in the countries like America, India and Brazil where the growth aptitude is at a great distance when analyzed to the other business. As explained the above layout of constrain for transports, we can elaborate that ford is accomplishing its business in the potential target markets. Effective Market Amount: Also the purchases of the ford was affected by the market calliber where it is accomplishing its trade. When the target market GDP growth is elevated than the customers will demonstrate more attraction to have a exceptional or luxury transport. Economic Advancement: Economic advancement is a very important part which will actuates the advancement of a appropriate economy as a whole and which will recognized on distictive GDP. Oil Charges Variations: The oil variations consequence the purchases of the ford organization. If the oil charges are high it will be hard to retail the exceptional and luxury vehicles. Expense acquainted consumers may not show attraction to purchase the automobiles which arrange deficient mileage. As a whole the declared inexpensive reasons will actuates the advancements of the potential markets, confine expense of the actions, return rate on the endowment, and plans to accomodate the amount of the automobile. Social Factors: Social factors plays an important appearance in flow in appeal derived on the following reasons like character, statistical, assurance of the customers in that accurate market domain. Some of social reasons of Ford are as follow Geographical Advancements   The customers of ford had replaced from one geographical region to another geographical domain. Eg- The US for customers will use the cars or economic transports which have massive engines. But the Brittan buyers are acclimated to use the transports which are assigned by smaller engines. Customer Mental Outlook   Customer`s mood plays a role in choosing car model and composition, If the customers like sports they will choose the sports model car for their convenance. But if the customers are thinking about the price and safety bothered then they`ll apparently select a medium vehicle which will accomodate the mileage and protection both. Travel Tendency   The ford industry is accomplishing the vehicles derived on the travel tendency of the customers. Ford is a average price automobile which can be manageable by the medium class individuals. It is arranging the abilities depended on the travel tendency of the entire family. Technological Factors Technological factors of the ford automobile industry are very moderned when examined with their competitors. The technological factors of the transports organization will consequence on most of the affairs like sales percentage of the vehicles, customer amusement which indicate to the automatic advancement in the sales amount. Provide chain association It is the basic and too critical reason in the ford automobile industry, because the customers of automobile are more distressed about the authorizing and when the industry is going to convey the vehicle. The Ford organization is having healthy supply series combination which is in more than thirty countries. Operations Aptitude Ford aptitude are more accomplished to supply the improved assistance to customers. Ford automobile company is conducting its assembling in more than 30 countries, so Ford activities are very competent so it is capable for arranging exceptional transports at exact times. Technological Advancements in dispersion   Ford automobile industry is one of the transport companies which is implementing the vehicle view and designation in online through its website named aww w .ford.co.uk . One more moderned technological aspect is that customer can alter the components what he desire inner or the outer part of his car. The consumer will access the dispatch after minimum 1 month and max 2 months. If the ford is having the scheduled vehicle in the appraise they will transfer between one or two weeks. Product Transpiration   Ford automobile organization is dispensing the customer to alter the car and its demands. So ford had accomplished a chance to inaugurate a fresh vehicle depended on the most of the consumer`s choice and inclinations. The ford organization vehicels executing will be affected depended on the customer alterization demands. Swot Analysis of Ford Automobile Company Strengths of Ford: Brand Appearence   Ford brand is very popular in automobile organizations. Its brand appearence is famous in the worldwide merchandise because of high marketing and promoting. Online Marketing efficiency   Ford is one of the famous transport organozation which is imparting the online customer confirmaation of vehicles through its website. In online the purchaser is acquiesce to alter the engine, colour, interiors and exteriors. More customers appraisal   Ford is one of the vehicle company which is contributing the consumer for more category of vehicles and commercial transports. Ford is creating following kind of transports. Cars Commercial Vehicles (Jeeps, Vans, Trucks) Heavy Vehicles. Actions and allocation ability   Ford is abundant in its actions and allocation because it is conducting its trade in more than 30 countries and it improving its composing method in more than ninety plants. Connections with leading organizations   Ford industry is continueing the connections with leading organizations like Suzuki and Isuzu Motors Company to establish exceptional automobiles and in the part to technological attitude for vehiclle industry it is carrying on relations with Toyota and Honda motor organizations. Employee are affirm   Ford automobile organization workers are skilled and efficient in all its actions. Ford will keep up admirable relation with the workers by offering them good sallaries in automobile organizations. Ford is more interested about the operating atmosphere and safety conditions of the workers. Weakness of Ford: Sales Deterioration The sales appearence of the ford organization was descent from the year 2008 to 2009 due to worldwide crisis in the world financial market. Crisis is one of the considerable reason for descent of sales and one more major reason is ford will compose the approved vehicels which are not able to confront with circulating market vehicles. Extremely large unfunded allowance and other accountabilities   Ford is a kind of an which takes more accountability in the health and safety of the worker. Ford entrust more amount on preserving a better operating atmosphere. Low abundance Ford detailed its trade actions in expanded terrestrial distances, so administration is forgetting focus on some lines achievement and it access the ford to attempt the low productivity. Weakening actions in North America   In the North America part ford actions has been cancelled due to the large amount of antagonists like GM, Toyota etc. The income of Ford was descent by 2.4%. Opportunities of Ford Creation of the fuel conducive cars   Now a days ford is creating the cars with low mileage and grasp. Ford is having a great convenience to produce fuel efficient cars and commercial vehicles. The automobile stenance company is having one generate more fuel capable types like, vehicles which can run on braceable strengths like solar energy and bio fuels. Development of Hybrid vehicles Ford had one more choice in accomplishing the automobiles and commercial transports established on electric engines. If the vehicles are established based on electricity engines the customers will array more attraction to purchase the vehicles, the fact is the vehicle maintenance charge will low when the car is run on electricity. Circumstances in India and China markets Ford is owning the market circumstances in India and china countries because both countries are having large geographical area and community. The most of the people in these two countries are more attracted to possess a four wheeler for their family. That is the fact ford fiesta is a most acknowledged vehicle in these two markets. Threats to ford: Amount increase in unprocessed material   Raw material prices like hard steel and rolling steel expense will power the bound cost of the vehicle. all in all it will esteem the profit margin of the ford because of low margin price. Accelerated development of competitors Ford advancement and advancement may actuate by rapid growth in no of competitors in the transport organization. From the beginning America claimed vehicle organization. Ford’s main antagonist are General motors, Toyota, Honda, BMW, etc. Smaller Capital applying   Ford is applying short on its actions and analysis advancement exercise, when confront to its oponents. The opponents are consuming large amount on experiment operations. Competitor Analysis   The Core Competencies of Ford are it is very innovative in using the high technology in the manufacturing the cars commercial vehicles. Ford is more concerned about safety and more over ford is gave the opportunity to its customers to customize their interiors and exteriors of Cars. The important competitive advantage is ford is the first motor company to come with active park assist, which can help the driver to park with a touch of a button Comparing the sales of top automobile companies like General Motors and Toyota. The sales of these companies are from the year 2004-2009. General Motors sales are high among these automobile companies. Ford is performing good even in recession time because the ford motor vehicles are not too costly when compared with competitors. Overall ford sales are good when compared to general motors and Toyota Strategies of ford   Here is the Bowmen`s clock to analyze the strategies of ford Marketing is a social and administrative action by which individual and groups annex what they are their demands and want through actualize and alternate brands and appraisal with others. Marketing administration is the evolution of arranging and eliminating the apprehension, costing, advancement and dispersion of concepts, goods and services to actualize corresponding that appease individual and organizational aims. Marketing suggest some aggregation of goods created, services, facts, or knowledge proposed to a market to conciliate a need or want Marketing is an conventional and perceptive method for considering about and working out for markets. The operation begins with exploring the marketplace to comprehend its agitation. The dealer consumes analysis modes to analyze convinience, which is to discover individuals, all groups of people with missed requirements or hidden interest in some output or service. The marketing action existed on the following: Assaying marketing convinience. Establishing marketing strategies. Planning marketing policies. Administering the marketing achievements. Before taking any conclusion and accomplishing the destinations, it has to make inquiry of what to do,how to do, when to do, where to do and who is to do it. This is nothing but strategic tactics. Ambitions demonstrate what an organization unit wants to accomlisj whereas strategy is how to reach there.Marketing strategies in cleat appellation are the entire and invincible aims arranged accurately for acquiring the marketing ambitions of the organization. Marketing can be declared as a scenario for actualizing its ambitions. Strategy choice will rely on whether the organization or the dealer execute the following function: Market leader A challenger A follower A niche The apperception of goals, both in determinable and affectable session, is an important background to strategy conception. Ambitions have an affection and time anatomy appended to them.These are commonly explain in terms of financial return, market allowance, market companionship, etc. So the approach of market familiarized strategic purpose appears with the connection between the products the dealer is dealing in and the market circumstances. In this aspect, our study accord only with the marketing strategies i.e. promotional strategies of the Ford automobiles. OBJECTIVE To develop the connection with bankers to make the auto finance easy for consumer. To know the reason of acquaintance of the vehicles. To study and assay the Promotional Strategies of Ford. To know whether the consumers are appeased with the deals given by the marketer. To find out amusement of the consumers. To study and analyze the consumer`s understanding regarding the convenience/benefit of Ford vehicles. Conclusion   Ford automobile company is acting well in the appearence of political, economical, social, and environmental. But ford unexpectedly affronting the difficulty in 2008 sales due to the inexpensive problem. (descent of markets and GDP’s). Worldwide economic circumstances are advancing but stays breakable. improvement in some markets are bashful due to debilitated labor markets and bound credit. Recommendations Ford company should contemplate more on income progress by producing exceptional and luxury vehicles and should manage the center group strategy. Ford have the convenience to create vehicles which can travel through electricity, solar energy and bio fuels. It will assist the association to establish in circumstantial cause. Referecnes: 1.   scribd.com/doc/32286545/Macro-Environment-and-PESTL-Analysis-of-Ford-Car-Manufacturing-Ltd, Accessed on 21st-03-2011 2.  Ã‚  scribd.com/doc/44687685/The-Marketing-Strategy-of-Ford-Motor, Accessed on 22nd-03-2011 3.  Ã‚  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Main_Page, Accessed on 23rd-03-2011 4.   Adrian palmer Bob Hartley, 2006, The Business Environment, fifth edition, Mc Graw-Hill Higher Education, UK. 5.  Ã‚  Andre Clark, 2000, Organisations competitions and the business environment, first edition, Pearson Education Limited, UK. 6.  Ã‚  Adrian palmer Bob Hartley, 2009, The Business Environment, Sixth edition, Mc Graw-Hill Higher Education, UK. 7.  Ã‚  Worthington Britton, 2009, The Business Environment, Sixth Edition, Pearson Education Limited, UK. 8.  Ã‚  Ã‚  www.economywatch.com, 2007, History of automobile industry, (online), Availablefrom URL-economywatch.com/world-industries/automobile/, Accessed on 25th-03-2011 9.  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   www.businessweek.com, 2006, GM Ford-Roadmaps for Recovery, (Online), Available from URL- businessweek.com/investor/content/mar2006/pi20060314-416862.htm, Accessed on 27th-03-2011

Sandras Fantasy Professor Ramos Blog

Sandras Fantasy Many artists use their personal lives and experiences they face in order to draw inspiration as well as create art that can only come from within. In the story Never marry a mexican it follows the character Clemencia a young student who falls in love with her teacher who is married yet it leads to a darker turn. When she starts to feel the power she has from within herself to control different aspects in his life and soon starts to obsess over this new found energy. However to the people who have analyzed this character all seem to have the same answer as to why it may be that Clemencia is the way she is. Yet it is never brought up how the author herself can have a direct tie in with the character development placing some of her personal life experiences that are escalated into a dark creative art piece. In this we explain how Sandra Cisneros creative ability to develop this character by not only adding in her our life but in helping us understand the bigger picture of real life prob lems that are presented in a beautiful piece of art. In order to truly understand why Clemencia is the way she is we have to look at the author herself to get a full understanding of why she made this character the way she is. Besides just an author Cisneros dabbles in many different forms of work from poetry, activism, and painting. These play an important part as certain aspects of her life leak into her stories and Clemencia herself. One example of this is from a section of the book in which the author says â€Å"I admit, there was a time when all I wanted was to belong to a man. To wear that gold band on my left hand and be worn on his arm like an expensive jewel brilliant in the light of day.† (Cisneros51). This plays a very crucial role due to the fact the in real life Sandra is not married nor does she have any romantic relationships and appears she would rather be alone. With that being said Sandra may not want a relationship in real life just as the character does not as well in the story but she turns it into a more in teresting read by making it so that Clemica is an over exaggerated version of herself. This opening scene is just one of the many that Cisneros continues to show this fantasy version of herself. Now in the story the author could have chosen any occupation for the young Clemencia to be but she plays out the character to be a substitute teacher who has a strong passion for art. In one scene she talks about how she loves to paint day and night as well as considers the jobs to be compared to prositutuion. She also mentions in that sense that rich people love her creativity and buy their artwork at her exhibitions. It even states in one article that â€Å"Now, the coming-of-age novel – an important contribution to Chicana feminist literature – has also inspired an art exhibit at the National Hispanic Cultural Center in Albuquerque†.(Gonzalez, Carolina Dalia,remeclza.com) . To further help you understand this its almost as Sandra is giving us the more relatable things about herself before driving into the more darker and fictional side side of her. Furthermore Clemencia goes on to talk about buying an apartment with her sister as well as it states in the book that â€Å"Im a person who doesnt belong to any class†.(cisneros55) . As I said prior the author is very well known author and is also recognized for her arts. This shows a direct simile to the character clemencia shes not rich nor poor which in my interpetions means that both the author and the character both share traits of being an artist as well as living very simple kickback life styles . To further back up this claim it also good to note that Cisneros has the funds to be able to live a very fancy lifestyle but just like the book she decides not to and would rather spend her time in her house in mexico.(â€Å"Sandra Cisneros.† Sandra Cisneros, sandracisneros.com/0.) With her involvement in activities sandra is also known to be a femminist which means she believes in equal rights for women so that men and women are on the same level. Thought the stories in her book they all seem to start with a very young girl being taken advantage of or treated horribly by the men in their lives. Now relating back to the story Clemencia appears to have power over Drew and her ability to make him do whatever she feels free too. This could have a big connection to Cisneros personal live in which in her real life she feels women are still dominated in a mans world and the story is her own way of expressing that anger. In order to drive the nail in the coffin there is a statistic of womens labor force in 2024 for hispanc women and it states that in 2024 there will only be 8.4 percent of hispacinc women in the labor force.(U.S Department of Labor.gov). With shocking statistics like that we could see why she would use her stories as a way to vent and get the challeng ing frustration of the problems women face on a daily basis. Through Clemica she is able to fantasize aspects of the women dominating the mans life and even in the process destroying other womens lives. They say art is a replication of life in which we like to use our personal lives and experiences to create art thats different than another. Thats what makes art so beautiful everyone has a different interpretation on it and brings people together to further discuss it. Now the majority of people will say that its just a fictional story and its just the authors way of entertaining the people while telling the truth. While yes I do believe to some extent it does have some entertainment aspect but more so of the author telling us her experience through means of creative storytelling and eventually coming to a life lesson. Regardless artists have inspiration and to me there is always some truth in all fiction. Works cited â€Å"U.S. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.† Women of Working Age, Data and Stats, Womens Bureau, U.S. Department of Labor, dol.gov/wb/stats/NEWSTATS/latest/demographics.htm#EduLF. Gonzalez, Carolina Dalia. â€Å"Sandra Cisneros Classic Chicana Novel The House on Mango Street Inspired This Art Exhibit.† Remezcla, remezcla.com/lists/culture/sandra-cisneros-the-house-on-mango-street-exhibit/. Woman Hollering Creek and Other Stories. Paw Prints, 2008. â€Å"Sandra Cisneros.† Sandra Cisneros, sandracisneros.com/.

Analysis of a publicly-traded company Research Paper

Analysis of a publicly-traded company - Research Paper Example The company is a publicly traded company trading in the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol SBUX. The common stocks of Starbucks Cafe were trading at a price of $52.96 as of December 10, 2012 (Yahoo, 2012). The market capitalization of Starbucks Cafe is $39.38 billion. The firm uses a holistic approach towards the sourcing of its coffee. Starbucks Cafe sources its coffee through fair trade coffee. Fair trade coffee guarantees the farmers a price of at least $1.26 per pound. Other benefits that farmers receive in a fair trade coffee arrangement are technology transfer and financing of crops. Customers are more likely to support companies that source coffee using fair trade coffee practices due to the green movement and the tendency of customers of buying from companies that act in a socially responsible manner. The market share of Starbucks in the U.S is 33% of the coffee market (O’Farrell, 2012). During the recession the business of Starbucks declined because the demand f or gourmet coffee is price sensitive. Buying coffee from Starbucks Cafe is considered a luxury by a lot of American buyers. During harsh economic times people tend to be more price conscious. The store has 192,866 employees and 39.66% of its workforce works outside the United States (Cnn, 2012). The employees of the firm are referred too as baristas. The firm believes in the value of diversity in the workplace. Diversity is valued by the managerial staff of the company. The equation that defines diversity at Starbucks Cafe is: Diversity = Inclusion + Equity + Accessibility (Starbucks, 2012). The use of diversity can enhance the creativity of the employees and foster an environment in which innovation is a critical component of the success of the enterprise. The customer service of the company has helped the firm differentiate itself from the competition. Starbucks Cafe offers free services to its customers including Wi-Fi internet accessibility. The firm generates an alternate reven ue stream through the sale of iTunes. The firm believes a lot in the value of corporate social responsibility (CSR). The CRS program of the firm is comprehensive due to the genuine effort the firm places in helping the community and other stakeholder groups. Starbucks Cafe was named one of the world’s most ethical companies in 2012 for the six year in a row. The firm certifies 75% of all new stores under the LEEDÂ ® green building standard. The firm minimizes the use of water and energy at its stores to save resources and protect the environment. About half of the firm’s company owned store are powered by renewable energy. The communities in which Starbucks operates are an important stakeholder group for the organization. The firm donated 441,000 community service hours during 2011 (Starbucks, 2012). During fiscal year 2011 Starbucks Cafe generated sales of $11,700 million. The sales of the company increase by 9.27%. The net income of the firm in 2011 was $1,246 milli on. In the last two years the company’s net income increased by 219%. A firm’s net margin measures the absolute profitability of the company. The desirable outcome is to have a high net margin. During 2011 the net margin of Starbucks Cafe was 10.65%. The net margin of the company is much higher than the industry average of 3.8% (Dnb, 2012). The earnings per share and cash dividend per share of the company were $1.66 and $0.56 respectively. The liquidity of the firm is an important aspect of the business that managers must consider. A

Commodity Trade Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 2750 words

Commodity Trade - Essay Example Topic Page No. Figure 1. China Imports and its Trends from year 1980-2007 5 Figure 2. China Exports and its Trends from year 1980-2007 5 Figure 3. China net trade of rice, wheat and corn, 1961-2008 6 Figure 4 China’s Grain Exports from 2008-2010 7 Figure 5 Grain Consumption in China 8 Figure 6 Global Grain Prices 11 1. Introduction: There was a time three decades ago when China had a negligible role in the world trade. However, the situation has significantly altered over the years and now the country has improved its performance and is considered as one of the largest exporters in the world. The country also imports considerably products like raw materials, halfway contributions, and others. The growth of the country in the recent years with respect to trade has created significant challenges for the other countries in the world. Demands of materials in the country has significant impacts on the other countries that has also been felt with the deceleration in China’s i ndustrial production in the middle of the 2008-2009 global economic crisis contributing to a remarkable collapse in the prices of commodities (Feenstra & Wei, 2009, p.1). In the present times, there has been a steep rise in the prices of the different commodities. Considering commodities like the grains, rise in demand has been experienced with the rising incomes in countries like India and China. Several factors associated with the trade policies of the country can be realized to have significant effects on the imports and exports of grains. The production of grains including wheat, flour, rice, and others are largely dependent on the world market that is associated with a country’s imports and exports (Ensuring the UK’s Food Security in a Changing World, 2008). The present study reflects on the emerging nations participating in the global financial markets through import and export mechanisms and thus having an impact on the commodities. In this case China has been c onsidered and grains have been chosen as the commodity for the purpose of the study on the impact of the country’s imports and exports on the commodity. 1.1. Aim of the Study: The aim of the study is to understand the impacts of the trade policies of emerging nations on different commodities considering China as the nation and grains as the commodity. 1.2. Objectives: In order to achieve the aim of the study, the following objectives have been considered: To learn about the trade policies- imports and exports- of China, considering grains as the commodity chosen for the study. To discuss about the major importers and exporters of grain. To learn about the international price of grains and their agricultural policies in the market. To try to determine the impacts of China’s participation in global financial markets through exports and imports on the grains commodity. 2. China Imports and Exports: An Overview: Over the recent years, the imports and exports of China have increased with the total value of the exports and imports being recorded as USD 2.174 trillion in the year 2007. The total value of imports has been recorded at USD 956 billion in 2007 that reflected an increase of 25 percent on a yearly average. This has been possible owing to the living standards of the citizens of the country being rising over the years (China import and export trends, 2011). The imports and trends of the country can be represented through the following graph: Figure 1: China Imports and its Trends from year

Death Penalty and the American Criminal Justice Research Paper

Death Penalty and the American Criminal Justice - Research Paper Example It is aligned with the retributive justice system where there is a focus on the crime, the criminal and punishment and justice is meted within the "eye for an eye" context. Capital punishment has been sanctioned mainly because it is supposed to serve three purposes: deterrence to crime, retribution for the victim and repentance on the part of the criminal. According to Banner, these promised benefits have not been met (23). Particularly, the death penalty failed to drive a decrease in heinous crimes. In addition, claiming the life of an offender for retribution and repentance is morally inconsistent. There is the ethical challenge of weighing the lives of the innocent against that of the guilty. This is further aggravated by the position that the government is partially to blame for failing to prevent serious crimes. There is the position that individual offenders are not the sole responsible for criminality so there is the question of whether they should be made to bear the brunt of such extreme punishment. These variables tend to violate the morality and ethics of using death penalty in order to serve their stated purposes. The American Law Institute, the very organization that created the death penalty through the Model Penal Code of 1963, withdrew its approval of the capital punishment. The organization argued that death penalty is not aligned with the core legal values of the United States that is why it should never have been sanctioned in the first place (Hood & Deva, 182). This was highlighted by Zimring and Simon when they pointed out that there is always a risk of error in administering the death penalty and the consequences of this event far outweigh the potential benefits in terms of harm done and the justice being called for in the resolution of crimes (158). The US Supreme Court is also known to support its abolition. Early decisions have established the judicial view that capital punishment is  unconstitutional and it violates the Eighth Amendm ent of the US Constitution.

Summry Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 250 words

Summry - Essay Example ratic presidents like Bill Clinton gave more attention to the business sector whereas the only positive gesture Obama expressed towards the business sector was the rescue of the huge union-dominated General Motors and Chrysler. Obama concentrated more on pulling out the American economy from recession even though he had least concerns on business people. The bureaucratic finance bill was not a Wall Street killer even though the President’s anti-business stand raised many concerns. Moreover, Obama concentrated more on ensuring enormous cash flow to business even though he doesn’t like the business people much. And above all his policies have helped pull the economy out of recession. Obama was keener on tackling big subjects like health care and Wall Street, and he never bothered about publishing the details to others. Fiscal policy is even more uncertain, thanks to Mr Obama’s refusal to produce a credible plan to rein in the deficit. Obama has realized that many entrepreneurs plough money into a new factory when they have no idea about the business principles or what taxes they will eventually be asked to pay. Even then, it is necessary for Obama to put more efforts on the business sect or for the revival of American

Chemistry Lab report Coursework Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words

Chemistry Lab report - Coursework Example In this lab, we aim to build a working model of a self heating cup using the heat released during an exothermic reaction. We shall also compare two chemical reactions to find which reactant causes water in the cup to reach higher temperature in a shorter duration. In our simulation of the self-heating cup, the heat energy from an exothermic reaction is used to heat water. Temperature of the water in the cup increases due to transfer of heat energy from the reaction to the cup through conduction. If there is no heat loss during the experiment, A plastic cup was covered with aluminum foil to prevent its melting on exposure to heat. Tap water (75 mL) was added to the cup. To prevent heat loss from the cup, a lid made of aluminum foil was placed over the cup and two holes were made to the lid. Through one hole in the lid, a digital thermometer was placed to record temperature of water in the cup. The digital thermometer was connected to a data logger in order to record the temperature and to plot a temperature-time graph. A glass rod was placed through the other hole for stirring. The outer walls and bottom of a clean beaker were covered by aluminum foil in order to prevent heat loss during the reaction. Anhydrous calcium chloride (61.95 g) was added to the beaker. Water to be added to the calcium chloride was measured (61 mL) and kept handy. Just before placing the cup on the beaker, the recording of temperature of water in the cup was started. Water was added to calcium chloride in the beaker and immediately, the cup was placed on the beaker, touching the solution. Temperature was recorded for 10 minutes, with constant stirring using the glass rod. The stirring is essential to ensure even heating of water in the cup. A new cup and beaker were readied in a similar manner. To the new beaker, copper sulfate (9.25 g) and zinc powder (4.8 g) were added. When the apparatus was set up, 5 mL

Summry Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 250 words

Summry - Essay Example ratic presidents like Bill Clinton gave more attention to the business sector whereas the only positive gesture Obama expressed towards the business sector was the rescue of the huge union-dominated General Motors and Chrysler. Obama concentrated more on pulling out the American economy from recession even though he had least concerns on business people. The bureaucratic finance bill was not a Wall Street killer even though the President’s anti-business stand raised many concerns. Moreover, Obama concentrated more on ensuring enormous cash flow to business even though he doesn’t like the business people much. And above all his policies have helped pull the economy out of recession. Obama was keener on tackling big subjects like health care and Wall Street, and he never bothered about publishing the details to others. Fiscal policy is even more uncertain, thanks to Mr Obama’s refusal to produce a credible plan to rein in the deficit. Obama has realized that many entrepreneurs plough money into a new factory when they have no idea about the business principles or what taxes they will eventually be asked to pay. Even then, it is necessary for Obama to put more efforts on the business sect or for the revival of American

Initial Public Offering Paper Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words

Initial Public Offering Paper - Essay Example In this case, even after the IPO, Del-Ta Engineering is still the controlling shareholder by virtue of its shareholders agreement with David Rivel (Initial Public Offerings (IPO): RRSAT Global Communications Network Ltd. n.d.). IPOs have positive initial returns on average. This is the phenomenon of underpricing (Ross, Westerfield, and Jaffee, 1996). For example, at start of the first day after the RRSat Global Communications Network Ltd., the shares were 12.16% [($14.02 - $ 12.50)/$12.50] above their initial offering price. At the end of the first day, the shares were 20.24% [($15.03 - $ 12.50)/$12.50] above their initial offering price (RRSat Global Communications Network Ltd. n.d.). The present value of the first three payments comprises a significant portion (20.73%) of the price of stock. This can be explained by the time value of money. A dollar now is worth more than a dollar in the future. a. High-risk companies. High-risk companies are expected to distribute a relatively low proportion of current earnings and have a relatively low PE ratio. A high-risk company is likely to retain more of its earnings as the probability of bankruptcy is higher.

Vocational Education and Training Needs Analysis Essay Example for Free

Vocational Education and Training Needs Analysis Essay Training methods used to stimulate learning can be classified in three ways, one of which is †¢ CONFERENCES †¢ LECTURES †¢ ON-THE-JOB TRAINING †¢ INTELLIGENT TUTORING 2. In evaluating training programs, it is important to distinguish _____ from data-collection methods. †¢ ORGANIZATIONAL PAYOFFS †¢ COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS †¢ INDIVIDUAL PARTICIPATION †¢ TARGETS OF EVALUATION 3. The evaluation phase is one phase of the process for effective training to occur. Which of the following IS NOT A PART OF THE EVALUATION PHASE? †¢ SELECT TRAINING MEDIA †¢ DEVELOP CRITERIA †¢ PRETEST TRAINEES †¢ MONITOR TRAINING 4. _____ analysis is helpful in determining the special needs of a particular group, such as older workers, WOMEN, OR MANAGERS AT DIFFERENT LEVELS. †¢ INDIVIDUAL †¢ ORGANIZATION †¢ DEMOGRAPHIC †¢ OPERATIONS 5. Which of the following is an example of an on-the-job training method? †¢ UNDERSTUDY ASSIGNMENTS †¢ ROLE PLAYING †¢ INTELLIGENT TUTORING †¢ CASE METHOD 6. Which of the following is an example of the simulation method of training? †¢ JOB ROTATION †¢ ORIENTATION †¢ CORRESPONDENCE COURSES †¢ IN-BASKET 7. The level of training needs analysis that attempts to identify the content of the training is _____ ANALYSIS. †¢ ENVIRONMENTAL †¢ OPERATIONS †¢ ORGANIZATIONAL †¢ INDIVIDUAL 8. _____ refers to the material that is rich in association for the trainees and is therefore easily UNDERSTOOD BY THEM. †¢ PYGMALION EFFECT †¢ TRAINING PARADOX †¢ ORIENTATION †¢ MEANINGFULNESS 9. Which theory is founded on the premise that an individual’s intentions regulate his or her behavior? †¢ CORRESPONDENT INFERENCE THEORY †¢ GOAL THEORY †¢ GROUNDED THEORY †¢ ATTRIBUTION THEORY 10. The impact of training on _____ is the most significant, but it is the most difficult effect to DEMONSTRATE. †¢ ORGANIZATIONAL RESULTS †¢ DEMOGRAPHICS †¢ ACTION LEARNING †¢ TRAINEE SELF-ESTEEM 11. When trainees are given the opportunity to practice far beyond the point where they have performed a TASK CORRECTLY SEVERAL TIMES, THE TASK BECOMES SECOND NATURE AND IS †¢ OVERLEARNED †¢ IRRELEVANT †¢ REPETITIVE †¢ BORING 12. The level of training needs analysis that focuses on identifying whether training supports the COMPANY’S STRATEGIC DIRECTION IS CALLED _____ ANALYSIS. †¢ OPERATIONS †¢ INDIVIDUAL †¢ ENVIRONMENTAL †¢ ORGANIZATION View as multi-pages TOPICS IN THIS DOCUMENT Vocational education, Training, Practice, Skill RELATED DOCUMENTS Vocational Education and Training THERE HAVE ALWAYS BEEN VOCATIONAL ASPECTS TO SCHOOLING IN AUSTRALIA. HOWEVER, IN RECENT TIMES THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASED EMPHASIS ON THIS ASPECT OF SCHOOLING WITHIN BOTH THE GENERAL CURRICULUM AND THOSE AREAS THAT HAVE A PARTICULAR VOCATIONAL FLAVOUR. IN WHAT WAYS DOES THIS EMPHASIS PROVIDE A BROADER OR NARROWER CONCEPTION OF EDUCTION FOR SCHOOL STUDENTS? YOUR RESPONSE NEEDS TO REFER TO: (I) THE AIMS OF THE ? NEW VOCATIONALISM AND HOW IT IS 297   Words | 7   Pages READ FULL DOCUMENT TRAINING NEED ANALYSIS ? Training Needs Analysis and Skills Audit Easy seven step plan – covers: Who received training in your organisation last year? Does anyoneneed a refresher course? What about your staff’s career aspirations – do you know their capabilities? Step 1 How should I consult? It is recommended that employers consult with all staff on an annual basis to assess organisational training and development 297   Words | 6   Pages READ FULL DOCUMENT Training Needs Analysis Library Get Custom Help eBook Library About BrainMass Expert Profiles Blog Free Quizzes Videos Business  » Management  » Problem #416292 sample solutions faq Case Study: Training Needs Analysis Case ALL IT TAKES IS FOR GOOD MEN TO DO NOTHING In 1987, Ms. Dillman was hired by IMP to work in Hangar 3 at North American International Airport as a seamstress in their fabric shop. 297   Words | 4   Pages READ FULL DOCUMENT Training Development Need Analysis

Sea Water Injection System

Sea Water Injection System In order to improve the oil recovery in an oil field the injection of sea water is used to increase the pressure inside the reservoir and enhance the oil production. The graph given in Figure 1 is a typical seawater injection system, before the injection process, water must have a treatment to decrease the corrosion rate caused by seawater in pipe lines, surface and downhole injection equipments. The treatment is based in a mechanical de-aeration process and chemical scavenger injection to decrease the concentration of oxygen in seawater. Figure 1. Seawater Injection System In a normal operation of the seawater injection system the conditions of the process are 150,000 barrels per day, pipe diameter of 8 inches at 25  °C, however in terms of corrosion parameters the data is provided in table 1, this table shows that the mechanical deaeration process reduce the most quantity of Oxygen concentration in seawater. Table 1. Concentration of Oxygen in normal operation Concentration of O2 in different Units PPB mg/l mole/m3 Feed Seawater 7,000 7 0.22 After mechanical de-aeration process 100 0.1 0.003 After scavenger dosage 10 0.01 0.0003 With the data provided, the corrosion rate in normal operation condition is 0.0454mm/year (the calculation step by step including unit conversion are shown in the appendix) hence the corrosion rate is far less than the company acceptable value which is 0.1 mm/year, and it means that the system is working properly. It has been found that the mechanical de-aeration equipment requires repair, and it will be out of operation for between one and three months. Water system Injection without a mechanical de-aeration process: Calculating the limit current density with the following equation: Concentration of Oxygen only with the addition of Scavenger dosing = 6.910 ppm K is the mass transfer coefficient and it calculations and unit conversions are shown in the appendix. Calculating the Corrosion Rate: Assuming the main component of the pipe Iron therefore n= 2 M= 55.84 g/mol Density: 7.87 g/cm3 Now we can compare the corrosion rate of each case and determine the implications of operating the system without the mechanical de-aeration. Hence the corrosion rate will increase 502 times without the mechanical de-aeration. Based on this result it is obvious that the most important process for oxygen removal is the mechanical deareation. The company request the assessment in a technically and economically point of view three operational solutions during the repair of the mechanical de-aeration equipment. For the given acceptable corrosion rate less than 0.1 mm/year, a corrosion rate value of 0.09 mm/year was used to calculate the implications of the possible solutions. a. Decreasing the Flow Rate Assuming an acceptable corrosion Rate of 0.09 mm/year, From the equation above we can reach the Current density: With current density we can reach mass transfer coefficient k: Now we can reach the new Sh number: With Sh number we can obtain Re number: This value of Reynolds number means that we are in the transition regime between laminar flow and turbulent flow. Now we can reach the flow rate: From the technical point of view and based on the concepts of fluids mechanics, decreasing the flow volume to 260 barrels per day will generate a laminar flow (Re less than 3000) on the pipe, in other words it means that the velocity will not be in the required optimum range of 1.5 m/s to 2.5 m/s, according to Streeter. Doing the calculations the velocity will reach a very slow value of 0.014 m/s in the pipe, which is by far lower than the minimum value of 1 m/s. Therefore technically, the reduction of flow rate to reach an acceptable corrosion rate is not a possible solution. In addition, this kind of diminution of the flow rate (577 times lower than the original) would have impacts on the oil well. Specifically, it would not be able to maintain the pressure at the desired level and therefore would have a big impact on oil production leading to money loss. b. Increasing the amount of scavenger Assuming an acceptable corrosion Rate of 0.09 mm/year From the equation below we can reach the concentration of Oxygen that we need to contain in the water in order to have an acceptable corrosion rate Using Sodium sulfate as scavenger the following reaction will proceed: Hence form the stoichiometry of the reaction the relation between the compounds will be 2 moles of Scavenger and 1 mole of Oxygen. Therefore the amount of scavenger Sodium sulfate needed is: => In an injection flow rate of 150,000 bbl/day Based on scavengers calculations we need to provide the system with a high amount of scavenger to reduce the oxygen concentration that gives an acceptable corrosion rate, it is up to 1.3 ton per day, it is nearly 80 times more than amount of scavenger used in normal operation, which is about 17 kg per day. On the economically point of view, if the scavenger will substitute mechanical de-aeration for a month, the need of scavenger will be approximately 40 ton per month. By using the commercial price of scavenger 0.64 USD/kg (https://www.icis.com), it will cost around 832 USD/day and scaling it to a month it will cost nearly 24,960 USD/month. c. Corrosion Inhibitor Corrosion inhibitor compound will reduce the corrosion rate by preventing both anodic and cathodic reactions. Anodic inhibitor will be adsorbed onto metal surface to form protective film and prevent metal dissolution while cathodic inhibitor will minimize O2 reduction reaction by forming non-conducting film on metal surface. And in technical terms it could be the solution of the problem. However, from the calculations, we know that corrosion rate without the mechanical deareation is 22.5 mm/year and the aim is to decrease the corrosion rate below 0.1 mm/year. Based on the corrosion inhibitor risk category that is proposed by Hedges (2000), if the expected uninhibited corrosion rate is graeter than 6 mm/year inhibition is unlikely to provide integrity for the full field life. Therefore corrosion control of the system could not be efficient with a only corrosion inhibitor because of the high requirement of availability. Based on the results of the three possible options, on the economically point of view decreasing the injection flow rate will impact in the production of oil, and decreasing the main product (oil) of the industry it will have terrible effects in the oil company. Therefore in the corrosion engineering point of view the most accurately solution is to increase the amount of scavenger (Na2SO3) in order to reach a corrosion rate of 6 mm/year and then with the addition of corrosion inhibitors the corrosion rate can be reduce to an acceptable value of less than 0.1 mm/year. The dosage of O2 scavenger has to be interrupted for 8 hours per week for the injection of the biocide. During this time if there was not the corrosion inhibitor, the Corrosion rate would be 22.5 mm/yr. but if the Corrosion inhibitor inhibition rate is 98.5% (as from 6mm/yr to 0.09mm/yr), the corrosion rate would be: Therefore the Corrosion rate would be: The Corrosion rate is slightly above the required norm (0.002 mm/yr), but in the worst case scenario, 3 months with no deaerator, due to the fact the Corrosion rate with the mechanical deaerator is 0.0454 mm/yr which is 0.0546 mm/year less than the required standard. So, in a year perspective the slightly more amount of Corrosion will be not significant and the system will work properly. Also, the amount of Na2SO3 needed to reach a CR of 6 mm/year is 905 Kg/day and it will cost around 580 USD/day. Finally, in order to choose the ideal corrosion inhibitor laboratory tests must be performed in the same seawater that will be used. In situ tests would help to assure the quality of the results. Streeter, Victor L. Handbook of fluid mechanics. McGraw-Hill, ed 1 (1961). Hedges, B. (2000) The Corrosion Inhibitor Availability Model, NACE International, Paper 00034. Water system Injection with a mechanical de-aeration process and Oxygen scavenger addition: Considering the water system injection above and the following data we can reach a corrosion rate value in the next steps. Data provided: Pipe Diameter: = 8 inch, therefore the Area A = 50.26 in2 = 0.032429 m2 Volume Flow Rate: = 150000 bbl/d Initial Oxygen Concentration = 7 ppm Concentration of Oxygen After Mechanical De-aeretion = 100 ppb Concentration of Oxygen After Scavenger dosing = 10 ppb Kinematic Viscosity: 1.05 X 10-6 m2/s Schmidt number = 505 Calculation of Re number: Calculation of Sh Number: In turbulent Flow calculation of Diffusion coefficient: From Sh number we can reach the mass transfer coefficient k: Now calculating the limit current density with the following equation: Concentration of Oxygen after mechanical de-aeration and Scavenger dosing = 0.01 ppm Calculating the Corrosion Rate: Assuming the main component of the pipe Iron therefore: n= 2 MFe: 55.84 g/mol à Ã‚ : 7.87 g/cm3 For 8 hours per week, the O2 scavenger dosing is interrupted for biocide to be injected. So, there is an Availability of : => The Corrosion rate at a concentration of 0.1ppm of O2 is: Water system Injection without a mechanical de-aeration process: Calculating the limit current density with the following equation: Concentration of Oxygen only with the addition of Scavenger dosing = 6.910 ppm Calculating the Corrosion Rate: Assuming the main component of the pipe Iron therefore n= 2 M= 55.84 g/mol Density: 7.87 g/cm3 Now we can compare the corrosion rate of each case and determine the implications of operating the system without the mechanical de-aeration. Hence the corrosion rate will increase 502 times without the mechanical de-aeration. Evaluation of the following operational solutions: Decrease the flow rate of water: Assuming an acceptable corrosion Rate of 0.09 mm/year From the equation above we can reach the Current density: With current density we can reach mass transfer coefficient k Now we can reach the new Sh number: With Sh number we can obtain Re number: This value of Reynolds number means that we are in the transition regime between laminar flow and turbulent flow. Now we can reach the flow rate: Increasing the amount of scavenger: Assuming an acceptable corrosion Rate of 0.09 mm/year From the equation above we can reach the Current density: From the equation below we can reach the concentration of Oxygen that we need to contain in the water in order to have an acceptable corrosion rate Using Sodium sulfate as scavenger the following reaction will proceed: Hence form the stoichiometry of the reaction the relation between the compounds will be 2 moles of Scavenger and 1 mole of Oxygen. Therefore the amount of scavenger Sodium sulfate needed is: Hence we need: In an injection flow rate of 150000 barrels per day

Labyrinth and Star Wars :: Movies Essays

Labyrinth and Star Wars It is amazing how in many stories a group of the most unlikely characters can overcome the most impossible odds. The battle of good vs. evil is reenacted in thousand upon thousand of movies. A lot of the times in these movies the group of heroes consist of very ordinary or odd characters, those who seem to possess few heroic traits. As seen in the movies Labyrinth and the first made Star Wars, a group of small and seemingly powerless characters can overcome great evils. The movie the Labyrinth tells a story about a group of unlikely heroes trying to make their way though a maze in order to defeat the Goblin King. The story starts out with the main character Sarah whom, without even realizing it, wishes her baby brother to be taken way by Jareth the Goblin King. He tells her that if she wants her brother back she will have to make her way through the labyrinth and to the castle beyond the Goblin City. She only has 13 hours to complete the seemingly impossible task or her little brother Toby will be turned into a goblin. While making her way through the twisted and endless maze Sarah runs into many weird characters. The first person she encounters is Hoggle a very untrustworthy dwarf whom is under the influence of Jareth. He is selfish and does things only if there is something for him to gain. He betrays Sarah many times throughout the movie, but in the end he proves himself to be more than a traitorous coward. Ludo is a yeti and despite looking vic ious is a gentle and caring monster. Ludo also has the power to control rocks. Sir Didymis is a loudmouthed, but noble knight who displays his valor throughout the movie. The four heroes manage to fight their way through the perilous labyrinth. The Goblin King Jareth is defeated and Sarah’s brother Toby is saved. Though the characters in this movie seemed to be nothing more than ordinary, and if not odd, they fought their way through labyrinth and conquered an entire army of evil goblins and their king. (Labyrinth 1986) Star Wars also tells of a similar story; the most unlikely set of people can stop an entire evil empire. The movie begins with Princess Leia’s capture by the evil empire. In an attempt to save herself and her mission plans, she sends two robots, R2D2 and C-3PO, to deliver a message to the illusive Ben Kenobi.

Analysis of Kubricks A Clockwork Orange Essay -- Clockwork Orange E

Analysis of Kubrick's A Clockwork Orange Stanley Kubrick's 1971 film production of the Anthony Burgess novel, A Clockwork Orange, is a truly unforgettable film.   It is narrated by one of the most vicious characters ever put on screen, Alex DeLarge.   The promotional poster for the film advertised it as "The adventures of a young man whose principle interests are rape, ultra-violence, and Beethoven" (Dirks 1).   Needless to say, music plays a very important role in A Clockwork Orange.   The expressive use of music in this film gives the viewer a look into the psyche of the vicious Alex, a psyche that equates violence with art.   By doing so, the film shows us the complexity and duality of the human mind through a character who loves both the most refined art and the most brutal violence. One way that the film's music expresses Alex's twisted view of the world and of himself is by stylizing violent scenes, making them seem like a ballet.   Alex, who loves Beethoven, gets a sort of inspiration to commit violent acts from classical music.   A prime example of this is the scene in which Alex and his "droogs" are walking in slow motion along the flatblock marina outside Alex's home.   While Rossini's "The Thieving Magpie" plays, Alex says, "For now it was lovely music that came to my aid."   The music inspires Alex to take action, and he knocks both Georgie and Dim into the water of the marina.   All the while, the violent actions are filmed in slow motion--an aspect of the film which, along with the sounds of Rossini, gives the impression of a ballet-like performance.   The action taking place in this scene seems as if it is synchronized with the music, like a finely choreographed dance.   As the music builds to a climax, the scene's ... ...orce the contradiction of Alex's character.   In turn the film becomes disturbing, yet somewhat comical.   The viewer is drawn to love Alex for his wit and humor and to hate him for his brutality.   By doing this, A Clockwork Orange shows us that we are all contradictions of ourselves to some degree, and that the complex human psyche can love high art and brutal violence at the same time.    Works Cited A Clockwork Orange. Dir. Stanley Kubrick. Warner Bros. 1971. Dirks, Tim. "A Clockwork Orange." 12 April 2001. 19pp. (http://www.filmsite.org/cloc. html). Kagan, Norman. The Cinema of Stanley Kubrick. New York: Holt, Rinehart and   Winston, 1972. LoBrutto, Vincent. "The Old Ultra-Violence." American Cinematographer. 80.10   (1999): 52-6+. Sobchack, Vivian. "Dà ©cor as Theme: A Clockwork Orange." Literature/Film Quarterly   9.2 (1981): 92-102.

Interior Design

Art is all around us whether we see it hung up in an art gallery or have it in the space of our own homes. I've always been creative and just loved everything that had to do with design. Although as a young girl I never knew what I really wanted to do until about a year ago, I found my passion and knew at that instant what I wanted to do in life. Rearranging my room was always something I enjoyed doing I never realized it was going to be my passion in life until about a year ago when I planned with my husband how to locate and build the interior decoration in our house. I helped decide every step of the way from where it was going to be all the way to the design of the house to choosing colors and furniture. I enjoyed doing this every step of the way. Helping in designing the house wasn't a chore nor a job it was life for me. It was something I enjoyed doing everyday and looked forward to. I know that The Lebanese University, Faculty of Fine Arts can give me the tools I need to excel in the career of Interior Design. With the hands on education and professional teachings I know it will give me what I need to do great as an Interior Designer. It will give me everything I need to be successful and start my own business in interior design. The Lebanese University, Faculty of Fine Arts is where I want to be.

Europe Economic Crisis

ISSN 0379-0991 Economic Crisis in Europe: Causes, Consequences and Responses EUROPEAN ECONOMY 7|2009 EUROPEAN COMMISSION The European Economy series contains important reports and communications from the Commission to the Council and the Parliament on the economic situation and developments, such as the Economic forecasts, the annual EU economy review and the Public ? nances in EMU report. Subscription terms are shown on the back cover and details on how to obtain the list of sales agents are shown on the inside back cover.Unless otherwise indicated, the texts are published under the responsibility of the Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs of the European Commission, BU24, B-1049 Brussels, to which enquiries other than those related to sales and subscriptions should be addressed. LEGAL NOTICE Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on its behalf may be held responsible for the use which may be made of the information contained in this publication, or for any errors which, despite careful preparation and checking, may appear.More information on the European Union is available on the Internet (http://europa. eu). Cataloguing data can be found at the end of this publication. Luxembourg: Of? ce for Of? cial Publications of the European Communities, 2009 ISBN 978-92-79-11368-0 doi 10. 2765/845 40  © European Communities, 2009 Reproduction is authorised provided the source is acknowledged. Printed in Luxembourg European Commission Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs Economic Crisis in Europe: Causes, Consequences and ResponsesEUROPEAN ECONOMY 7/2009 FOREWORD The European economy is in the midst of the deepest recession since the 1930s, with real GDP projected to shrink by some 4% in 2009, the sharpest contraction in the history of the European Union. Although signs of improvement have appeared recently, recovery remains uncertain and fragile. The EU’s response to the downturn has been swift and decisive. A side from intervention to stabilise, restore and reform the banking sector, the European Economic Recovery Plan (EERP) was launched in December 2008.The objective of the EERP is to restore confidence and bolster demand through a coordinated injection of purchasing power into the economy complemented by strategic investments and measures to shore up business and labour markets. The overall fiscal stimulus, including the effects of automatic stabilisers, amounts to 5% of GDP in the EU. According to the Commission's analysis, unless policies take up the new challenges, potential GDP in the EU could fall to a permanently lower trajectory, due to several factors. First, protracted spells of unemployment in the workforce tend to lead to a permanent loss of skills.Second, the stock of equipment and infrastructure will decrease and become obsolete due to lower investment. Third, innovation may be hampered as spending on research and development is one of the first outlays that businesses cu t back on during a recession. Member States have implemented a range of measures to provide temporary support to labour markets, boost investment in public infrastructure and support companies. To ensure that the recovery takes hold and to maintain the EU’s growth potential in the long-run, the focus must increasingly shift from short-term demand management to supply-side structural measures.Failing to do so could impede the restructuring process or create harmful distortions to the Internal Market. Moreover, while clearly necessary, the bold fiscal stimulus comes at a cost. On the current course, public debt in the euro area is projected to reach 100% of GDP by 2014. The Stability and Growth Pact provides the flexibility for the necessary fiscal stimulus in this severe downturn, but consolidation is inevitable once the recovery takes hold and the risk of an economic relapse has diminished sufficiently.While respecting obligations under the Treaty and the Stability and Growth Pact, a differentiated approach across countries is appropriate, taking into account the pace of recovery, fiscal positions and debt levels, as well as the projected costs of ageing, external imbalances and risks in the financial sector. Preparing exit strategies now, not only for fiscal stimulus, but also for government support for the financial sector and hard-hit industries, will enhance the effectiveness of these measures in the short term, as this depends upon clarity regarding the pace with which such measures will be withdrawn.Since financial markets, businesses and consumers are forward-looking, expectations are factored into decision making today. The precise timing of exit strategies will depend on the strength of the recovery, the exposure of Member States to the crisis and prevailing internal and external imbalances. Part of the fiscal stimulus stemming from the EERP will taper off in 2011, but needs to be followed up by sizeable fiscal consolidation in following years to reverse the unsustainable debt build-up.In the financial sector, government guarantees and holdings in financial institutions will need to be gradually unwound as the private sector gains strength, while carefully balancing financial stability with competitiveness considerations. Close coordination will be important. ‘Vertical’ coordination between the various strands of economic policy (fiscal, structural, financial) will ensure that the withdrawal of government measures is properly sequenced — an important consideration as turning points may differ across policy areas. Horizontal’ coordination between Member States will help them to avoid or manage cross-border economic spillover effects, to benefit from shared learning and to leverage relationships with the outside world. Moreover, within the euro area, close coordination will ensure that Member States’ growth trajectories do not diverge as the economy recovers. Addressing the underlying cause s of diverging competitiveness must be an integral part of any exit strategy.The exit strategy should also ensure that Europe maintains its place at the frontier of the low-carbon revolution by investing in renewable energies, low carbon technologies and â€Å"green† infrastructure. The aim of this study is to provide the analytical underpinning of such a coordinated exit strategy. Marco Buti Director-General, DG Economic and Financial Affairs, European Commission ABBREVIATIONS AND SYMBOLS USED Member States BE BG CZ DK DE EE EL ES FR IE IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK EA-16 EU-10 EU-15 EU-25 EU-27 Currencies EUR BGN CZK DKK EEK GBP HUF JPY LTL LVL PLN RON SEKBelgium Bulgaria Czech Republic Denmark Germany Estonia Greece Spain France Ireland Italy Cyprus Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Hungary Malta The Netherlands Austria Poland Portugal Romania Slovenia Slovakia Finland Sweden United Kingdom European Union, Member States having adopted the single currency (BE , DE, EL, SI, SK, ES, FR, IE, IT, CY, LU, MT, NL, AT, PT and FI) European Union Member States that joined the EU on 1 May 2004 (CZ, EE, CY, LT, LV, HU, MT, PL, SI, SK) European Union, 15 Member States before 1 May 2004 (BE, DK, DE, EL, ES, FR, IE, IT, LU, NL, AT, PT, FI, SE and UK) European Union, 25 Member States before 1 January 2007 European Union, 27 Member States euro New Bulgarian lev Czech koruna Danish krone Estonian kroon Pound sterling Hungarian forint Japanese yen Lithuanian litas Latvian lats New Polish zloty New Romanian leu Swedish krona iv SKK USD Slovak koruna US dollar Other abbreviations BEPG Broad Economic Policy Guidelines CESR Committee of European Securities Regulators EA Euro area ECB European Central Bank ECOFIN European Council of Economics and Finance Ministers EDP Excessive deficit procedure EMU Economic and monetary union ERM II Exchange Rate Mechanism, mark II ESCB European System of Central Banks Eurostat Statistical Office of the European Communities F DI Foreign direct investment GDP Gross domestic product GDPpc Gross Domestic Product per capita GLS Generalised least squares HICP Harmonised index of consumer prices HP Hodrick-Prescott filterICT Information and communications technology IP Industrial Production MiFID Market in Financial Instruments Directive NAWRU Non accelerating wage inflation rate of unemployment NEER Nominal effective exchange rate NMS New Member States OCA Optimum currency area OLS Ordinary least squares R Research and development RAMS Recently Acceded Member States REER Real effective exchange rate SGP Stability and Growth Pact TFP Total factor productivity ULC Unit labour costs VA Value added VAT Value added tax v ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This special edition of the EU Economy: 2009 Review â€Å"Economic Crisis in Europe: Causes, Consequences and Responses† was prepared under the responsibility of Marco Buti, Director-General for Economic and Financial Affairs, and Istvan P. Szekely, Director for Economic St udies and Research. Paul van den Noord, Adviser in the Directorate for Economic Studies and Research, served as the global editor of the report.The report has drawn on substantive contributions by Ronald Albers, Alfonso Arpaia, Uwe Bower, Declan Costello, Jan in ‘t Veld, Lars Jonung, Gabor Koltay, Willem Kooi, Gert-Jan Koopman, Martin Hradisky, Julia Lendvai, Mauro Griorgo Marrano, Gilles Mourre, Michal Narozny, Moises Orellana Pena, Dario Paternoster, Lucio Pench, Stephanie Riso, Werner Roger, Eric Ruscher, Alessandra Tucci, Alessandro Turrini, Lukas Vogel and Guntram Wolff. The report benefited from extensive comments by John Berrigan, Daniel Daco, Oliver Dieckmann, Reinhard Felke, Vitor Gaspar, Lars Jonung, Sven Langedijk, Mary McCarthy, Matthias Mors, Andre Sapir, Massimo Suardi, Istvan P. Szekely, Alessandro Turrini, Michael Thiel and David Vergara. Statistical assistance was provided by Adam Kowalski, Daniela Porubska and Christopher Smyth. Adam Kowalski and Greta Haems were responsible for the lay-out of the report.Comments on the report would be gratefully received and should be sent, by mail or e-mail, to: Paul van den Noord European Commission Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs Directorate for Economic Studies and Research Office BU-1 05-189 B-1049 Brussels E-mail: paul. [email  protected] europa. eu vi CONTENTS Executive Summary 1. 2. 3. A crisis of historic proportions Vast policy challenges A strong call on EU coordination 1 1 1 5 Part I: Anatomy of the crisis 1. Root causes of the crisis 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 3. Introduction A chronology of the main events Global forces behind the crisis Introduction Great crises in the past The policy response then and now Lessons from the past 7 8 8 9 10 2. The crisis from a historical perspective 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 4. 14 14 14 18 20 Part II: Economic consequences of the crisis 1. Impact on actual and potential growth 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 3. 1. 4.Introduction The impact on economic activity A s ymmetric shock with asymmetric implications The impact of the crisis on potential growth Introduction Recent developments Labour market expectations A comparison with recent recessions Introduction Tracking developments in fiscal deficits Tracking public debt developments Fiscal stress and sovereign risk spreads Introduction Sources of global imbalances Global imbalances since the crisis Implications for the EU economy 23 24 24 24 27 30 2. Impact on labour market and employment 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 4. 35 35 35 37 38 3. Impact on budgetary positions 3. 1. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 41 41 41 43 44 4. Impact on global imbalances 4. 1. 4. 2. 4. 3. 4. 4. 46 46 46 48 50 Part III:Policy responses 1. A primer on financial crisis policies 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 3. Introduction The EU crisis policy framework The importance of EU coordination 55 56 56 58 59 2. Crisis control and mitigation 62 vii 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 4. Introduction Banking support Macroeconomic policies Structural policies Introduction Crisis resolution policies Crisis prevention Introduction The pursuit of crisis resolution The role of EU coordination 62 62 64 71 3. Crisis resolution and prevention 3. 1. 3. 2. 3. 3. 78 78 78 80 4. Policy challenges ahead 4. 1. 4. 2. 4. 3. 82 82 82 85 References 87 LIST OF TABLES II. 1. 1. II. 1. 2. III. 1. 1. III. 2. 1. III. 2. 2.Main features of the Commission forecast The Commission forecast by country Crisis policy frameworks: a conceptional illustration Public interventions in the banking sector Labour market and social protection measures in Member States' recovery programmes 71 27 27 58 63 LIST OF GRAPHS I. 1. 1. I. 1. 2. I. 1. 3. I. 1. 4. I. 1. 5. I. 1. 6. I. 1. 7. I. 2. 1. I. 2. 2. I. 2. 3. I. 2. 4. I. 2. 5. I. 2. 6. II. 1. 1. II. 1. 2. II. 1. 3. II. 1. 4. II. 1. 5. II. 1. 6. II. 1. 7. Projected GDP growth for 2009 Projected GDP growth for 2010 3-month interbank spreads vs T-bills or OIS Bank lending to private economy in the euro area, 2000-09 Corporate 10 year-spreads vs.Gove rnment in the euro area, 2000-09 Real house prices, 2000-09 Stock markets, 2000-09 GDP levels during three global crises World average of own tariffs for 35 countries, 1865-1996, un-weighted average, per cent of GDP World industrial output during the Great Depression and the current crisis The decline in world trade during the crisis of 1929-1933 The decline in world trade during the crisis of 2008-2009 Unemployment rates during the Great Depression and the present crisis in the US and Europe Bank lending standards Manufacturing PMI and world trade Quarterly growth rates in the EU Construction activity and current account position Growth composition in current account surplus countries Growth compostion of current account deficit countries Potential growth 2007-2013, euro area 18 24 24 27 29 30 30 31 15 16 16 16 8 8 9 10 10 12 12 15 viii II. 1. 8. II. 1. 9. II. 1. 10. II. 2. 1. II. 2. 2. II. 2. 3. II. 2. 4. II. 2. 5. II. 2. 6. II. 2. 7. II. 2. 8. II. 2. 9. II. 2. 10. II. 2. 11. II. 2. 12. II. 3. 1. II. 3. 2. II. 3. 3. II. 3. 4. II. 3. 5. II. 3. 6. II. 3. 7. II. 3. 8. II. 4. 1. II. 4. 2. II. 4. 3. II. 4. 4. II. 4. 5. III. 2. 1. III. 2. 2. III. 2. 3. III. 2. 4. III. 2. 5. III. 2. 6. III. 2. 7. III. 2. 8. III. 2. 9. III. 2. 10.Potential growth 2007-2013, euro outs Potential growth 2007-2013, most recently acceding Member States Potential growth by Member State Unemployment rates in the European Union Employment growth in the European Union Unemployment and unemployment expectations Unemployment and hours worked Change in monthly unemployment rate – Italy Unemployment expectations over next 12 months (Consumer survey) – Italy Change in monthly unemployment rate – Germany Unemployment expectations over next 12 months (Consumer survey) Germany Change in monthly unemployment rate – France Unemployment expectations over next 12 months (Consumer survey) – France Change in monthly unemployment rate – United Kingdom Unemployment expectations over next 12 months (Consumer survey) – United Kingdom Tracking the fiscal position against previous banking crises Change in fiscal position and employment in construction Change in fiscal position and real house prices Fiscal positions by Member State Tracking general government debt against previous banking crises Gross public debt Fiscal space by Member State, 2009 Fiscal space and risk premia on government bond yields Current account balances Trade balance in GCC countries and oil prices The US trade deficit The Euro Area trade balance China's GDP growth rate and current account to GDP ratio Macroeconomic policy mix in the euro area Macroeconomic policy mix in the United Kingdom Macroeconomic policy mix in the United States Central bank policy rates ECB policy and eurozone overnight rates Central bank balance sheets Fiscal stimulus in 2009 Fiscal stimulus in 2010 Output gap and fiscal stimulus in 2009 Fiscal space and fiscal stimulus in 2009 31 31 32 35 36 3 7 38 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 41 42 42 42 43 44 44 45 46 49 50 51 52 65 65 65 66 66 66 67 68 68 69 LIST OF BOXES I. 1. 1. I. 2. 1. II. 1. 1. II. 1. 2. II. 1. 3. II. 1. 4. II. 4. 1. III. 1. 1.Estimates of financial market losses Capital flows and the crisis of 1929-1933 and 2008-2009 Impact of credit losses on the real economy The growth impact of the current and previous crises Financial crisis and potential growth: econometric evidence Financial crisis and potential growth: evidence from simulations with QUEST Making sense of recent Chinese trade data. Concise calendar of EU policy actions 11 17 25 28 33 34 49 57 ix III. 2. 1. III. 2. 2. III. 2. 3. III. 2. 4. Measuring the economic impact of fiscal stimulus under the EERP EU balance of payments assistance Labour market and social protection crisis measures: examples of good practice EU-level financial contributions 70 73 76 77 x EXECUTIVE SUMMARY assively liquidated their positions and stock markets went into a tailspin. From then o nward the EU economy entered the steepest downturn on record since the 1930s. The transmission of financial distress to the real economy evolved at record speed, with credit restraint and sagging confidence hitting business investment and household demand, notably for consumer durables and housing. The cross-border transmission was also extremely rapid, due to the tight connections within the financial system itself and also the strongly integrated supply chains in global product markets. EU real GDP is projected to shrink by some 4% in 2009, the sharpest contraction in its history.And although signs of an incipient recovery abound, this is expected to be rather sluggish as demand will remain depressed due to deleveraging across the economy as well as painful adjustments in the industrial structure. Unless policies change considerably, potential output growth will suffer, as parts of the capital stock are obsolete and increased risk aversion will weigh on capital formation and R&D. The ongoing recession is thus likely to leave deep and long-lasting traces on economic performance and entail social hardship of many kinds. Job losses can be contained for some time by flexible unemployment benefit arrangements, but eventually the impact of rapidly rising unemployment will be felt, with downturns in housing markets occurring simultaneously affecting (notably highly-indebted) households.The fiscal positions of governments will continue to deteriorate, not only for cyclical reasons, but also in a structural manner as tax bases shrink on a permanent basis and contingent liabilities of governments stemming from bank rescues may materialise. An open question is whether the crisis will weaken the incentives for structural reform and thereby adversely affect potential growth further, or whether it will provide an opportunity to undertake far-reaching policy actions. 2. VAST POLICY CHALLENGES 1. A CRISIS OF HISTORIC PROPORTIONS The financial crisis that hit the global econ omy since the summer of 2007 is without precedent in post-war economic history. Although its size and extent are exceptional, the crisis has many features in common with similar financial-stress driven recession episodes in the past.The crisis was preceded by long period of rapid credit growth, low risk premiums, abundant availability of liquidity, strong leveraging, soaring asset prices and the development of bubbles in the real estate sector. Over-stretched leveraging positions rendered financial institutions extremely vulnerable to corrections in asset markets. As a result a turn-around in a relatively small corner of the financial system (the US subprime market) was sufficient to topple the whole structure. Such episodes have happened before (e. g. Japan and the Nordic countries in the early 1990s, the Asian crisis in the late-1990s). However, this time is different, with the crisis being global akin to the events that triggered the Great Depression of the 1930s.While it may be appropriate to consider the Great Depression as the best benchmark in terms of its financial triggers, it has also served as a great lesson. At present, governments and central banks are well aware of the need to avoid the policy mistakes that were common at the time, both in the EU and elsewhere. Large-scale bank runs have been avoided, monetary policy has been eased aggressively, and governments have released substantial fiscal stimulus. Unlike the experience during the Great Depression, countries in Europe or elsewhere have not resorted to protectionism at the scale of the 1930s. It demonstrates the importance of EU coordination, even if this crisis provides an opportunity for further progress in this regard.In its early stages, the crisis manifested itself as an acute liquidity shortage among financial institutions as they experienced ever stiffer market conditions for rolling over their (typically shortterm) debt. In this phase, concerns over the solvency of financial instituti ons were increasing, but a systemic collapse was deemed unlikely. This perception dramatically changed when a major US investment bank (Lehman Brothers) defaulted in September 2008. Confidence collapsed, investors The current crisis has demonstrated the importance of a coordinated framework for crisis management. It should contain the following building blocks: †¢ Crisis prevention to prevent a repeat in the future. This should be mapped onto a collective 1 European Commission Economic Crisis in Europe: Causes, Consequences and Responses udgment as to what the principal causes of the crisis were and how changes in macroeconomic, regulatory and supervisory policy frameworks could help prevent their recurrence. Policies to boost potential economic growth and competitiveness could also bolster the resilience to future crises. †¢ Crisis control and mitigation to minimise the damage by preventing systemic defaults or by containing the output loss and easing the social hardship stemming from recession. Its main objective is thus to stabilise the financial system and the real economy in the short run. It must be coordinated across the EU in order to strike the right balance between national preoccupations and spillover effects affecting other Member States. Crisis resolution to bring crises to a lasting close, and at the lowest possible cost for the taxpayer while containing systemic risk and securing consumer protection. This requires reversing temporary support measures as well action to restore economies to sustainable growth and fiscal paths. Inter alia, this includes policies to restore banks' balance sheets, the restructuring of the sector and an orderly policy ‘exit'. An orderly exit strategy from expansionary macroeconomic policies is also an essential part of crisis resolution. The beginnings of such a framework are emerging, building on existing institutions and legislation, and complemented by new initiatives.But of course policy makers in Europe have had no choice but to employ the existing mechanisms and procedures. A framework for financial crisis prevention appeared, with hindsight, to be underdeveloped – otherwise the crisis would most likely not have happened. The same held true to some extent for the EU framework for crisis control and mitigation, at least at the initial stages of the crisis. Quite naturally, most EU policy efforts to date have been in the pursuit of crisis control and mitigation. But first steps have also been taken to redesign financial regulation and supervision – both in Europe and elsewhere – with a view to crisis prevention. By contrast, the adoption of crisis resolution policies has not begun in earnest yet.This is now becoming urgent – not least because it should underpin the effectiveness of control policies via its impact on confidence. 2. 1. Crisis control and mitigation Aware of the risk of financial and economic meltdown central banks and governments in the European Union embarked on massive and coordinated policy action. Financial rescue policies have focused on restoring liquidity and capital of banks and the provision of guarantees so as to get the financial system functioning again. Deposit guarantees were raised. Central banks cut policy interest rates to unprecedented lows and gave financial institutions access to lender-of-last-resort facilities.Governments provided liquidity facilities to financial institutions in distress as well, along with state guarantees on their liabilities, soon followed by capital injections and impaired asset relief. Based on the coordinated European Economy recovery Plan (EERP), a discretionary fiscal stimulus of some 2% of GDP was released – of which two-thirds to be implemented in 2009 and the remainder in 2010 – so as to hold up demand and ease social hardship. These measures largely respected agreed principles of being timely and targeted, although there are concerns that in some cases measures were not of a temporary nature and therefore not easily reversed.In addition, the Stability and Growth Pact was applied in a flexible and supportive manner, so that in most Member States the automatic fiscal stabilisers were allowed to operate unfettered. The dispersion of fiscal stimulus across Member States has been substantial, but this is generally – and appropriately – in line with differences in terms of their needs and their fiscal room for manoeuvre. In addition, to avoid unnecessary and irreversible destruction of (human and entrepreneurial) capital, support has been provided to hard-hit but viable industries while part-time unemployment claims were allowed on a temporary basis, with the EU taking the lead in developing guidelines on the design of labour market policies during the crisis.The EU has played an important role to provide guidance as to how state aid policies – including to the financial sector – could be shaped so as to pay respect to competition rules. Moreover, the EU has provided balance-of payments assistance jointly with the IMF and World Bank to Member States in Central and Eastern Europe, as these have been exposed to reversals of international capital flows. 2 Executive Summary Finally, direct EU support to economic activity was provided through substantially increased loan support from the European Investment Bank and the accelerated disbursal of structural funds. These crisis control policies are largely achieving their objectives.Although banks' balance sheets are still vulnerable to higher mortgage and credit default risk, there have been no defaults of major financial institutions in Europe and stock markets have been recovering. With short-term interest rates near the zero mark and ‘non-conventional' monetary policies boosting liquidity, stress in interbank credit markets has receded. Fiscal stimulus proves relatively effective owing to the liquidity and credit constraints fa cing households and businesses in the current environment. Economic contraction has been stemmed and the number of job losses contained relative to the size of the economic contraction. 2. 2. Crisis resolution ontext, the reluctance of many banks to reveal the true state of their balance sheets or to exploit the extremely favourable earning conditions induced by the policy support to repair their balance sheets is of concern. It is important as well that financial repair be done at the lowest possible long-term cost for the tax payer, not only to win political support, but also to secure the sustainability of public finances and avoid a long-lasting increase in the tax burden. Financial repair is thus essential to secure a satisfactory rate of potential growth – not least also because innovation depends on the availability of risk financing. †¢ Macroeconomic policies. Macroeconomic stimulus – both monetary and fiscal – has been employed extensively.The chal lenge for central banks and governments now is to continue to provide support to the economy and the financial sector without compromising their stability-oriented objectives in the medium term. While withdrawal of monetary stimulus still looks some way off, central banks in the EU are determined to unwind the supportive stance of monetary policies once inflation pressure begins to emerge. At that point a credible exit strategy for fiscal policy must be firmly in place in order to pre-empt pressure on governments to postpone or call off the consolidation of public finances. The fiscal exit strategy should spell out the conditions for stimulus withdrawal and must be credible, i. e. ased on pre-committed reforms of entitlements programmes and anchored in national fiscal frameworks. The withdrawal of fiscal stimulus under the EERP will be quasi automatic in 2010-11, but needs to be followed up by very substantial – though differentiated across Member States – fiscal conso lidation to reverse the adverse trends in public debt. An appropriate mix of expenditure restraint and tax increases must be pursued, even if this is challenging in an environment where distributional conflicts are likely to arise. The quality of public finances, including its impact on work incentives and economic efficiency at large, is an overarching concern. †¢ Structural policies.Even prior to the financial crisis, potential output growth was expected to roughly halve to as little as around 1% by the While there is still major uncertainty surrounding the pace of economic recovery, it is now essential that exit strategies of crisis control policies be designed, and committed to. This is necessary both to ensure that current actions have the desired effects and to secure macroeconomic stability. Having an exit strategy does not involve announcing a fixed calendar for the next moves, but rather defines those moves, including their direction and the conditions that must be sat isfied for making them. Exit strategies need to be in place for financial, macroeconomic and structural policies alike: †¢ Financial policies.An immediate priority is to restore the viability of the banking sector. Otherwise a vicious circle of weak growth, more financial sector distress and ever stiffer credit constraints would inhibit economic recovery. Clear commitments to restructure and consolidate the banking sector should be put in place now if a Japan-like lost decade is to be avoided in Europe. Governments may hope that the financial system will grow out of its problems and that the exit from banking support would be relatively smooth. But as long as there remains a lack of transparency as to the value of banks' assets and their vulnerability to economic and financial developments, uncertainty remains. In this 3European Commission Economic Crisis in Europe: Causes, Consequences and Responses 2020s due to the ageing population. But such low potential growth rates are li kely to be recorded already in the years ahead in the wake of the crisis. As noted, it is important to decisively repair the longer-term viability of the banking sector so as to boost productivity and potential growth. But this will not suffice and efforts are also needed in the area of structural policy proper. A sound strategy should include the exit from temporary measures supporting particular sectors and the preservation of jobs, and resist the adoption or expansion of schemes to withdraw labour supply.Beyond these defensive objectives, structural policies should include a review of social protection systems with the emphasis on the prevention of persistent unemployment and the promotion of a longer work life. Further labour market reform in line with a flexicuritybased approach may also help avoid the experiences of past crises when hysteresis effects led to sustained period of very high unemployment and the permanent exclusion of some from the labour force. Product market ref orms in line with the priorities of the Lisbon strategy (implementation of the single market programme especially in the area of services, measures to reduce administrative burden and to promote R and innovation) will also be key to raising productivity and creating new employment opportunities.The transition to a low-carbon economy should be pursued through the integration of environmental objectives and instruments in structural policy choices, notably taxation. In all these areas, policies that carry a low budgetary cost should be prioritised. 2. 3. Crisis prevention particular in China, into the world economy. This prompted accommodative monetary and fiscal policies. Buoyant financial conditions also had microeconomic roots and these tended to interact with the favourable macroeconomic environment. The list of contributing factors is long, including the development of complex – but poorly supervised – financial products and excessive short-term risk-taking.Crisis p revention policies should tackle these deficiencies in order to avoid repetition in the future. There are again agendas for financial, macroeconomic and structural policies: †¢ Financial policies. The agenda for regulation and supervision of financial markets in the EU is vast. A number of initiatives have been taken already, while in some areas major efforts are still needed. Action plans have been put forward by the EU to strengthen the regulatory framework in line with the G20 regulatory agenda. With the majority of financial assets held by cross-border banks, an ambitious reform of the European system of supervision, based on the recommendations made by the High-Level Group chaired by Mr Jacques de Larosiere, is under discussion.Initiatives to achieve better remuneration policies, regulatory coverage of hedge funds and private equity funds are being considered but have yet to be legislated. In many other areas progress is lagging. Regulation to ensure that enough provisions and capital be put aside to cope with difficult times needs to be developed, with accounting frameworks to evolve in the same direction. A certain degree of commonality and consistency across the rule books in Member States is important and a single regulatory rule book, as soon as feasible, desirable. It is essential that a robust and effective bank stabilisation and resolution framework is developed to govern what happens when supervision fails, including effective deposit protection.Consistency and coherence across the EU in dealing with problems in such institutions is a key requisite of a much improved operational and regulatory framework within the EU. †¢ Macroeconomic policies. Governments in many EU Member States ran a relatively A broad consensus is emerging that the ultimate causes of the crisis reside in the functioning of financial markets as well as macroeconomic developments. Before the crisis broke there was a strong belief that macroeconomic instability had bee n eradicated. Low and stable inflation with sustained economic growth (the Great Moderation) were deemed to be lasting features of the developed economies.It was not sufficiently appreciated that this owed much to the global disinflation associated with the favourable supply conditions stemming from the integration of surplus labour of the emerging economies, in 4 Executive Summary accommodative fiscal policy in the ‘good times' that preceded the crisis. Although this cannot be seen as the main culprit of the crisis, such behaviour limits the fiscal room for manoeuvre to respond to the crisis and can be a factor in producing a future one – by undermining the longer-term sustainability of public finances in the face of aging populations. Policy agendas to prevent such behaviour should thus be prominent, and call for a stronger coordinating role for the EU alongside the adoption of credible national medium-term frameworks.Intra-area adjustment in the Economic and Monetary Union (which constitutes two-thirds of the EU) will need to become smoother in order to prevent imbalances and the associated vulnerabilities from building up. This reinforces earlier calls, such as in the Commission's [email  protected] report (European Commission, 2008a), to broaden and deepen the EU surveillance to include intra-area competitiveness positions. †¢ Structural policies. Structural reform is among the most powerful crisis prevention policies in the longer run. By boosting potential growth and productivity it eases the fiscal burden, facilitates deleveraging and balance sheet restructuring, improves the political economy conditions for correcting cross-country imbalances, makes income redistribution issues less onerous and eases the terms of the inflation-output trade-off.Further financial development and integration can help to improve the effectiveness of and the political incentives for structural reform. at the Heads of State Level in the autumn of 2008 â €“ for the first time in history also of the Eurogroup – to coordinate these moves. The Commission's role at that stage was to provide guidance so as to ensure that financial rescues attain their objectives with minimal competition distortions and negative spillovers. Fiscal stimulus also has cross-border spillover effects, through trade and financial markets. Spillover effects are even stronger in the euro area via the transmission of monetary policy responses.The EERP adopted in November 2008, which has defined an effective framework for coordination of fiscal stimulus and crisis control policies at large, was motivated by the recognition of these spillovers. †¢ At the crisis resolution stage a coordinated approach is necessary to ensure an orderly exit of crisis control policies across Member States. It would not be envisaged that all Member State governments exit at the same time (as this would be dictated by the national specific circumstances). But it would be important that state aid for financial institutions (or other severely affected industries) not persist for longer than is necessary in view of its mplications for competition and the functioning of the EU Single Market. National strategies for a return to fiscal sustainability should be coordinated as well, for which a framework exists in the form of the Stability and Growth Pact which was designed to tackle spillover risks from the outset. The rationales for the coordination of structural policies have been spelled out in the Lisbon Strategy and apply also to the exits from temporary intervention in product and labour markets in the face of the crisis. †¢ At the crisis prevention stage the rationale for EU coordination is rather straightforward in view of the high degree of financial and economic integration.For example, regulatory reform geared to crisis prevention, if not coordinated, can lead to regulatory arbitrage that will affect location choices of institutions and may change the direction of international capital flows. Moreover, with many financial institutions operating cross border there is a 3. A STRONG CALL ON EU COORDINATION The rationale for EU coordination of policy in the face of the financial crisis is strong at all three stages – control and mitigation, resolution and prevention: †¢ At the crisis control and mitigation stage, EU policy makers became acutely aware that financial assistance by home countries of their financial institutions and unilateral extensions of deposit guarantees entail large and potentially disrupting spillover effects. This led to emergency summits of the European Council 5European Commission Economic Crisis in Europe: Causes, Consequences and Responses clear case for exchange of information and burden sharing in case of defaults. The financial crisis has clearly strengthened the case for economic policy coordination in the EU. By coordinating their crisis policies Member States heighten the credibi lity of the measures taken, and thus help restore confidence and support the recovery in the short term. Coordination can also be crucial to fend off protectionism and thus serves as a safeguard of the Single Market. Moreover, coordination is necessary to ensure a smooth functioning of the euro area where spillovers of national policies are particularly strong.And coordination provides incentives at the national level to implement growth friendly economic policies and to orchestrate a return to fiscal sustainability. Last but not least, coordination of external policies can contribute to a more rapid global solution of the financial crisis and global recovery. EU frameworks for coordination already exist in many areas and could be developed further in some. In several areas the EU has a direct responsibility and thus is the highest authority in its jurisdiction. This is the case for notably monetary policy in the euro area, competition policy and trade negotiations in the framework of the DOHA Round. This is now proving more useful than ever. In other areas, ‘bottom-up' EU coordination frameworks have been developed and should be exploited to the full.The pursuit of the regulatory and supervisory agenda implies the set-up of a new EU coordination framework which was long overdue in view of the integration of financial systems. An important framework for coordination of fiscal policies exists under the aegis of the Stability and Growth Pact. The revamped Lisbon strategy should serve as the main framework for coordination of structural policies in the EU. The balance of payment assistance provided by the EU is another area where a coordination framework has been established recently, and which could be exploited also for the coordination of policies in the pursuit of economic convergence. At the global level, finally, the EU can offer a framework for the coordination of positions in e. g. the G20 or the IMF.With the US adopting its own exit strategy, press ure to raise demand elsewhere will be mounting. The adjustment requires that emerging countries such as China reduce their national saving surplus and changed their exchange rate policy. The EU will be more effective if it also considers how policies can contribute to more balanced growth worldwide, by considering bolstering progress with structural reforms so as to raise potential output. In addition, the EU would facilitate the pursuit of this agenda by leveraging the euro and participating on the basis of a single position. 6 Part I Anatomy of the crisis 1. 1. 1. ROOT CAUSES OF THE CRISIS INTRODUCTIONThe depth and breath of the current global financial crisis is unprecedented in post-war economic history. It has several features in common with similar financial-stress driven crisis episodes. It was preceded by relatively long period of rapid credit growth, low risk premiums, abundant availability of liquidity, strong leveraging, soaring asset prices and the development of bubbles in the real estate sector. Stretched leveraged positions and maturity mismatches rendered financial institutions very vulnerable to corrections in asset markets, deteriorating loan performance and disturbances in the wholesale funding markets. Such episodes have happened before and the examples are abundant (e. g.Japan and the Nordic countries in the early 1990s, the Asian crisis in the late-1990s). But the key difference between these earlier episodes and the current crisis is its global dimension. When the crisis broke in the late summer of 2007, uncertainty among banks about the creditworthiness of their counterparts evaporated as they had heavily invested in often very complex and opaque and overpriced financial products. As a result, the interbank market virtually closed and risk premiums on interbank loans soared. Banks faced a serious liquidity problem, as they experienced major difficulties to rollover their short-term debt. At that stage, policymakers still perceived the c risis primarily as a liquidity problem.Concerns over the solvency of individual financial institutions also emerged, but systemic collapse was deemed unlikely. It was also widely believed that the European economy, unlike the US economy, would be largely immune to the financial turbulence. This belief was fed by perceptions that the real economy, though slowing, was thriving on strong fundamentals such as rapid export growth and sound financial positions of households and businesses. These perceptions dramatically changed in September 2008, associated with the rescue of Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac, the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers and fears of the insurance giant AIG (which was eventually bailed out) taking down major US and EU financial institutions in its wake.Panic broke in stock markets, market valuations of financial institutions evaporated, investors rushed for the few safe havens that were seen to be left (e. g. sovereign bonds), and complete meltdown of the financial system b ecame a genuine threat. The crisis thus began to feed onto itself, with banks forced to restrain credit, economic activity plummeting, loan books deteriorating, banks cutting down credit further, and so on. The downturn in asset markets snowballed rapidly across the world. As trade credit became scarce and expensive, world trade plummeted and industrial firms saw their sales drop and inventories pile up. Confidence of both consumers and businesses fell to unprecedented lows. Graph I. 1. : Projected GDP growth for 2009 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 Nov-07 CF-NMS EC-NMS Jan-08 May-08 Mar-08 CF-UK EC-UK Jul-08 Sep-08 CF-EA EC-EA Nov-08 Jun-09 Aug-09 Aug-10 % -4. 0 -4. 3 Oct-09 Oct-10 -6 Feb-09 Sources: European Commission, Consensus Forecasts Graph I. 1. 2: Projected GDP growth for 2010 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 Nov-08 CF-NMS EC-NMS Jan-09 May-09 Mar-09 CF-UK EC-UK Jul-09 Sep-09 CF-EA EC-EA Dec-09 Feb-10 Jun-10 Apr-10 % -6 Sources: European Commission, Consensus Forecasts This set chain of events set the scene fo r the deepest recession in Europe since the 1930s. Projections for economic growth were revised downward at a record pace (Graphs I. 1. 1 and I. 1. 2).Although the contraction now seems to have bottomed, GDP is projected to fall in 2009 by the order of 4% in the euro area and the European Union as whole – with a modest pick up in activity expected in 2010. 8 Apr-09 Part I Anatomy of the crisis The situation would undoubtedly have been much more serious, had central banks, governments and supra-national authorities, in Europe and elsewhere, not responded forcefully (see Part III of this report). Policy interest rates have been cut sharply, banks have almost unlimited access to lender-oflast-resort facilities with their central banks, whose balance sheets expanded massively, and have been granted new capital or guarantees from their governments.Guarantees for savings deposits have been introduced or raised, and governments provided substantial fiscal stimulus. These actions giv e, however, rise to new challenges, notably the need to orchestrate a coordinated exit from the policy stimulus in the years ahead, along with the need to establish new EU and global frameworks for the prevention and resolution of financial crises and the management of systemic risk (see Part III). that point most observers were not yet alerted that systemic crisis would be a threat, but this began to change in the spring of 2008 with the failures of Bear Stearns in the United States and the European banks Northern Rock and Landesbank Sachsen.About half a year later, the list of (almost) failed banks had grown long enough to ring the alarm bells that systemic meltdown was around the corner: Lehman Brothers, Fannie May and Freddie Mac, AIG, Washington Mutual, Wachovia, Fortis, the banks of Iceland, Bradford & Bingley, Dexia, ABN-AMRO and Hypo Real Estate. The damage would have been devastating had it not been for the numerous rescue operations of governments. When in September 2008 L ehman Brothers had filed for bankruptcy the TED spreads jumped to an unprecedented high. This made investors even more wary about the risk in bank portfolios, and it became more difficult for banks to raise capital via deposits and shares. Institutions seen at risk could no longer finance themselves and had to sell assets at ‘fire sale prices' and restrict their lending.The prices of similar assets fell and this reduced capital and lending further, and so on. An adverse ‘feedback loop' set in, whereby the economic downturn increased the credit risk, thus eroding bank capital further. The main response of the major central banks – in the United States as well as in Europe (see Chapter III. 1 for further detail) – has been to cut official attributed to a common systemic factor (see for evidence Eichengreen et al. 2009). 1. 2. A CHRONOLOGY OF THE MAIN EVENTS The heavy exposure of a number of EU countries to the US subprime problem was clearly revealed in the s ummer of 2007 when BNP Paribas froze redemptions for three investment funds, citing its inability to value structured products. 1 ) As a result, counterparty risk between banks increased dramatically, as reflected in soaring rates charged by banks to each other for short-term loans (as indicated by the spreads — see Graph I. 1. 3). ( 2 ) At (1) See Brunnermeier (2009). (2) Credit default swaps, the insurance premium on banks' portfolios, soared in concert. The bulk of this rise can be Bps 500 400 300 200 100 0 Jan-00 Graph I. 1. 3: 3-month interbank spreads vs T-bills or OIS Default of Lehman Brothers BNP Paribas suspends the valuation of two mutual funds Jan-01 Jan-02 EUR Jan-03 Jan-04 USD Jan-05 Jan-06 JPY Jan-07 Jan-08 GBP Jan-09 Sources: Reuters EcoWin. 9 European Commission Economic Crisis in Europe: Causes, Consequences and Responses interest rates to historical lows so as to contain funding cost of banks.They also provided additional liquidity against collateral in ord er to ensure that financial institutions do not need to resort to fire sales. These measures, which have resulted in a massive expansion of central banks' balance sheets, have been largely successful as three-months interbank spreads came down from their highs in the autumn of 2008. However, bank lending to the non-financial corporate sector continued to taper off (Graph I. 1. 4). Credit stocks have, so far, not contracted, but this may merely reflect that corporate borrowers have been forced to maximise the use of existing bank credit lines as their access to capital markets was virtually cut off (risk spreads on corporate bonds have soared, see Graph I. 1. 5). Graph I. 1. : Bank lending to private economy in the euro area, 2000-09 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: European Central Bank institutions incentives to sell to the government while giving taxpayers a reasonable expectation that they will benefit in the long run. Financial inst itutions which at the (new) market prices of toxic assets would be insolvent were recapitalised by the government. All these measures were aiming at keeping financial institutions afloat and providing them with the necessary breathing space to prevent a disorderly deleveraging. The verdict as to whether these programmes are sufficient is mixed (Chapter III. 1), but the order of asset relief provided seem to be roughly in line with banks' needs (see again Box I. 1. ). Graph I. 1. 5: Corporate 10 year-spreads vs. Government in the euro area, 2000-09 450 350 basis points 250 150 50 -50 Corp AAA rated Corp A rated Corp composite yield Corp AA rated Corp BBB rated y-o-y percentage change house purchases households Non-financial corporations -150 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: European Central Bank. 1. 3. GLOBAL FORCES BEHIND THE CRISIS Governments soon discovered that the provision of liquidity, while essential, was not sufficient to restore a normal functionin g of the banking system since there was also a deeper problem of (potential) insolvency associated with undercapitalisation.The write-downs of banks are estimated to be over 300 billion US dollars in the United Kingdom (over 10% of GDP) and in the range of over EUR 500 to 800 billion (up to 10% of GDP) in the euro area (see Box I. 1. 1). In October 2008, in Washington and Paris, major countries agreed to put in place financial programmes to ensure capital losses of banks would be counteracted. Governments initially proceeded to provide new capital or guarantees on toxic assets. Subsequently the focus shifted to asset relief, with toxic assets exchanged for cash or safe assets such as government bonds. The price of the toxic assets was generally fixed between the fire sales price and the price at maturity to giveThe proximate cause of the financial crisis is the bursting of the property bubble in the United States and the ensuing contamination of balance sheets of financial instituti ons around the world. But this observation does not explain why a property bubble developed in the first place and why its bursting has had such a devastating impact also in Europe. One needs to consider the factors that resulted in excessive leveraged positions, both in the United States and in Europe. These comprise both macroeconomic and developments in the functioning of financial markets. ( 3 ) (3) See for instance Blanchard (2009), Bosworth and Flaaen (2009), Furceri and Mourougane (2009), Gaspar and Schinasi (2009) and Haugh et al. (2009). 10 Part I Anatomy of the crisis Box I. 1. 1: Estimates of financial market losses Estimates of financial sector osses are essential to inform policymakers about the severity of financial sector distress and the possible costs of rescue packages. There are several estimates quantifying the impact of the crisis on the financial sector, most recently those by the Federal Reserve in the framework of its Supervisory Capital Assessment Program, w idely referred to as the â€Å"stress test†. Using different methodologies, these estimates generally cover write-downs on loans and debt securities and are usually referred to as estimates of losses. The estimated losses during the past one and a half years or so have shown a steep increase, reflecting the uncertainty regarding the nature and the extent of the crisis.IMF (2008a) and Hatzius (2008) estimated the losses to US banks to about USD 945 in April 2008 and up to USD 868 million in September 2008, respectively. This is at the lower end of predictions by RGE monitor in February the same year which saw losses in the rage of USD 1 to 2 billion. The April 2009 IMF Global Financial Stability Report (IMF 2009a) puts loan and securities losses originated in Europe (euro area and UK) at USD 1193 billion and those originated in the United States at USD 2712 billion. However, the incidence of these losses by region is more relevant in order to judge the necessity and the extent of policy intervention. The IMF estimates write-downs of USD 316 billion for banks in the United Kingdom and USD 1109 billion (EUR 834 billion) for the euro area.The ECB's loss estimate for the euro area at EUR 488 billion is substantially lower than this IMF estimate, with the discrepancy largely due to the different assumptions about banks' losses on debt securities. Bank level estimates can be used in stress tests to evaluate capital adequacy of individual institutions and the banking sector at large. For example the Fed's Supervisory Capital Assessment Program found that 10 of the 19 banks examined needed to raise capital of USD 75 billion. Loss estimates can also inform policymakers about the effects of losses on bank lending and the magnitude of intervention needed to pre-empt this. Such calculations require additional assumptions about the capital banks can raise or generate through their profits as well as the amount of deleveraging needed.As an illustration the table below presents four scenarios that differ in their hypothetical recapitalisation rate and their deleveraging effects The IMF and ECB estimates of total write-downs for euro area banks are taken as starting points. Net write-downs are calculated, which reflect losses that are not likely to be covered either by raising capital or by tax deductions. Depending on the scenario net losses range between 219 and 406 billion EUR using the IMF estimate, and roughly half of that based on the ECB estimate. Such magnitudes would imply balance sheets decreases amounting to 7. 3% in the mildest scenario and 30. 8% in the worst case scenario (period between August 2007 and end of 2010). Capital recovery rates and deleveraging play a crucial role in determining the magnitude of the balance sheet effect.Governments' capital injections in the euro area have been broadly in line with the magnitude of these illustrative balance sheet effects, committing 226 billion EUR, half of which has been spent (see Chap ter III. 1). Table 1: Balance-sheet effects of write-downs in the euro area* Scenario (1) (2) (3) Capital 1760 1760 1760 Assets 31538 31538 31538 Estimated write-downs IMF 834 834 834 ECB 488 488 488 Recapitalisation rate 65% 65% 50% Net write-downs IMF 219 219 313 ECB 128 128 183 Decrease in balance sheet (leverage constant) IMF -12. 4% -12. 4% -17. 8% ECB -7. 3% -7. 3% -10. 4% Change in leverage ratio 0% -5% -5% Decrease in balance sheet (with delevraging) IMF -12. 4% -16. 8% -21. % ECB -7. 3% -11. 9% -14. 9% * Billion EUR, EUR/USD exchange rate 1. 33. Source : European Commission (4) 1760 31538 834 488 35% 407 238 -23. 1% -13. 5% -10% -30. 8% -22. 2% 11 European Commission Economic Crisis in Europe: Causes, Consequences and Responses As noted, most major financial crises in the past were preceded by a sustained period of buoyant credit growth and low risk premiums, and this time is no exception. Rampant optimism was fuelled by a belief that macroeconomic instability was eradicate d. The ‘Great Moderation', with low and stable inflation and sustained growth, was conducive to a perception of low risk and high return on capital.In part these developments were underpinned by genuine structural changes in the economic environment, including growing opportunities for international risk sharing, greater stability in policy making and a greater share of (less cyclical) services in economic activity. Persistent global imbalances also played an important role. The net saving surpluses of China, Japan and the oil producing economies kept bond yields low in the United States, whose deep and liquid capital market attracted the associated capital flows. And notwithstanding rising commodity prices, inflation was muted by favourable supply conditions associated with a strong expansion in labour transferred into the export sector out of rural employment in the emerging market economies (notably China).This enabled US monetary policy to be accommodative amid economic bo om conditions. In addition, it may have been kept too loose too long in the wake of the dotcom slump, with the federal funds rate persistently below the ‘Taylor rate', i. e. the level consistent with a neutral monetary policy stance (Taylor 2009). Monetary policy in Japan was also accommodative as it struggled with the aftermath of its late-1980s ‘bubble economy', which entailed so-called ‘carry trades' (loans in Japan invested in financial products abroad). This contributed to rapid increases in asset prices, notably of stocks and real estate – not only in the United States but also in Europe (Graphs I. 1. 6 and I. 1. 7).A priori it may not be obvious that excess global liquidity would lead to rapid increases in asset prices also in Europe, but in a world with open capital accounts this is unavoidable. To sum up, there are three main transmission channels. First, upward pressure on European exchange rates vis-a-vis the US dollar and currencies with de facto pegs to the US dollar (which includes inter alia the Chinese currency and up to 2004 also the Japanese currency), reduced imported inflation and allowed an easier stance of monetary policy. Second, so-called â€Å"carry trades† whereby investors borrow in currencies with low interest rates and invest in higher yielding currencies while mostly disregarding exchange rate risk, implied the spillover of global liquidity in European financial markets. 4 ) Third, and perhaps most importantly, large capital flows made possible by the integration of financial markets were diverted towards real estate markets in several countries, notably those that saw rapid increases in per capita income from comparatively low initial levels. So it is not surprising that money stocks and real estate prices soared in tandem also in Europe, without entailing any upward tendency in inflation of consumer prices to speak of. ( 5 ) Graph I. 1. 6: Real house prices, 2000-09 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Index, 2000 = 100 United States United Kingdom Source: OECD euro area euro area excl. Germany 500 400 300 200 100 0 03. 01. 00 12. 10. 00 Graph I. 1. 7: Stock markets, 2000-09 300 200 100 0 27. 07. 01 14. 05. 02 25. 02. 03 05. 12. 03 22. 09. 04 05. 07. 05 12. 04. 06 25. 1. 07 07. 11. 07 22. 08. 08 DJ EURO STOXX (lhs) Source: www. stoxx. com DJ Emerging Europe STOXX (rhs) Aside from the issue whether US monetary policy in the run up to the crisis was too loose relative to the buoyancy of economic activity, there is a broader issue as to whether monetary policy should lean against asset price growth so as to prevent bubble formation. Monetary policy could be blamed – at both sides of the Atlantic – for (4) See for empirical evidence confirming these two channels Berger and Hajes (2009). (5) See for empirical evidence Boone and Van den Noord (2008) and Dreger and Wolters (2009). 12 Part I Anatomy of the crisis cting too narrowly and not reacting sufficiently strongly to indications of growing financial vulnerability. The same holds true for fiscal policy, which may be too narrowly focused on the regular business cycle as opposed to the asset cycle (see Chapter III. 1). Stronger emphasis of macroeconomic policy making on macro-financial risk could thus provide stabilisation benefits. This might require explicit concerns for macro-financial stability to be included in central banks' mandates. Macro-prudential tools could potentially help tackle problems in financial markets and might help limit the need for very aggressive monetary policy reactions. 6 ) Buoyant financial conditions also had microeconomic roots and the list of contributing factors is long. The ‘originate and distribute' model, whereby loans were extended and subsequently packaged (‘securitised') and sold in the market, meant that the creditworthiness of the borrower was no longer assessed by the originator of the loan. Moreover, technological change allowed the development of new complex financial products backed by mortgage securities, and credit rating agencies often misjudged the risk associated with these new instruments and attributed unduly triple-A ratings. As a result, risk inherent to these products was underestimated which made them look more attractive for investors than warranted.Credit rating agencies were also susceptible to conflicts of interests as they help developi